US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on August 17? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on August 17?
Start: 2026-08-14T12:00:59.000Z
End: 2026-08-17T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 17, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 17, 2026, or if August 17, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FKRW. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 17, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 17, 2026, or if August 17, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FKRW. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the USD/KRW exchange rate market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for this market, along with 24-hour volume of $5. It shows how traders on Polymarket are positioning around the movement of the USD/KRW exchange rate, offering a snapshot of collective sentiment and betting activity as the market approaches its resolution date.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of market expectations. While analysts may incorporate macroeconomic indicators and policy outlooks, traders on Polymarket adjust prices based on real-time sentiment and short-term catalysts, which can lead to divergence or alignment depending on recent economic releases and geopolitical developments.

This market resolves around Aug 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official closing value of the USD/KRW exchange rate on the specified date, as referenced by authoritative financial data sources.

Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including key central bank announcements, especially from the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Korea, shifts in global risk sentiment affecting currency flows, and major economic data releases such as U.S. inflation figures or South Korean trade balances. Geopolitical developments and market volatility events may also influence trader positioning in the near term.

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