TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$143,246,370

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,403,290,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,452,035,386

405,032

Markets across

30,543

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,690

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on September 21?
polymarket

US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on September 21?

Volume:
$5

US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on September 21?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on September 21? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 7:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on September 21?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 21, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 21, 2026, or if September 21, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 21, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 21, 2026, or if September 21, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/ZAR exchange rate increasing or decreasing by September 21. You can view the current odds, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $5. The total volume traded on this market is $5. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and participation levels regarding the future direction of the South African Rand against the US Dollar. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how PredictionHero users are forecasting this financial event.

Currently, prediction market participants are strongly indicating a belief that the USD/ZAR exchange rate will increase. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a more mixed outlook, with opinions divided on the impact of global economic conditions and South African political developments. While analyst opinions vary, this market provides a concentrated view of what a diverse group of individuals believes will happen. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect the collective wisdom of those willing to put capital behind their beliefs, offering a unique perspective alongside traditional financial analysis.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the USD/ZAR exchange rate will be up or down on September 21. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates a high degree of confidence in an increase, with the 'Up' outcome currently trading at a significant premium. This dynamic pricing allows traders to express their views and profit from correctly anticipating the market's direction.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate between the US Dollar and the South African Rand at a specified time on September 21. The exact time and source for the final exchange rate will be determined by Polymarket and publicly available before the resolution date. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their prediction aligned with the actual change in the USD/ZAR exchange rate.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 21, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and South Africa, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, will be closely watched. Geopolitical events, shifts in global risk sentiment, and changes in commodity prices (particularly gold and oil) could also impact the USD/ZAR exchange rate. Unexpected political developments in South Africa, such as policy changes or leadership transitions, could also create volatility and move this market considerably. Any news affecting the relative strength of the two economies is likely to be a key driver.