US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on September 14? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on September 14?
Start: 2026-09-11T12:01:19.000Z
End: 2026-09-14T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether the USD/ZAR exchange rate will be up or down on September 14. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of traders. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market's assessment of the probability of the ‘Up’ outcome, with higher prices suggesting greater confidence in that scenario. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments to expectations as new information becomes available.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official exchange rate published by a recognized financial data provider at a specified time on September 14. The market will determine whether the USD/ZAR exchange rate has increased or decreased compared to its value at the market’s creation. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome and their positions in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 14, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and South Africa, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth rates, are key catalysts. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global risk sentiment or unexpected political developments in either country, could also drive significant price movements. Furthermore, statements from the Federal Reserve or the South African Reserve Bank regarding monetary policy could impact the USD/ZAR exchange rate and, consequently, this market.

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