US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on September 21? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on September 21?
Start: 2026-09-18T12:01:33.000Z
End: 2026-09-21T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 21, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 21, 2026, or if September 21, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 21, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 21, 2026, or if September 21, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/NOK exchange rate being higher or lower on Sep 21, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded, currently at $5, and the 24-hour volume, which is $5. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the direction of the exchange rate. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how participants are pricing the outcome of this event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a strong expectation regarding the USD/NOK exchange rate. It’s interesting to compare this to forecasts from financial analysts, who often provide predictions based on economic indicators and geopolitical factors. However, prediction markets like this one aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than individual analyst opinions. Discrepancies may arise due to differing methodologies or the incorporation of unique information within the market itself. It’s important to consider both sources when forming your own view.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate for the USD/NOK pair at a specific time on that date. The market will determine whether the exchange rate is higher or lower than its value at the start of the market, as defined by Polymarket. Traders holding contracts on the correct side will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake.

Several factors could influence the USD/NOK exchange rate and, consequently, move this market. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Norway, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, are key catalysts. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or Norges Bank could also have a significant impact. Geopolitical events, particularly those affecting oil prices (given Norway’s oil-producing status), and global risk sentiment can also drive fluctuations in the exchange rate, leading to changes in the odds for this market.

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