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US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on September 14?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on September 14?

Volume:
$3,754

Above 9.245

 - Kalshi

Above 9.245 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 9.245

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$423
N/A
N/A
$264
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.259

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$380
N/A
N/A
$380
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.257

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$361
N/A
N/A
$253
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.243

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$311
N/A
N/A
$261
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.249

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$279
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.247

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$233
N/A
N/A
$182
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.261

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
$215
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.241

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$178
N/A
N/A
$128
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.251

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$127
N/A
N/A
$124
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.233

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$117
N/A
N/A
$91
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.275

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
$91
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.283

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
$61
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.239

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
$80
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.285

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
$53
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.237

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$73
N/A
N/A
$53
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.279

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
$59
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.271

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
$53
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.235

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
$53
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.287

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
$29
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.255

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.253

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.269

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.281

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
$29
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.265

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.263

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$28
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group asks whether the US Dollar will be stronger or weaker against the Norwegian Krone on September 14, 2026. The markets resolve based on the closing price of the USD/NOK exchange rate on that date, compared to the prior day's closing price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses a complex series of thresholds based on an earlier date (Sep 11) and the opening candlestick, while Polymarket uses a direct comparison of closing prices on the target date (Sep 14).Hero tip: Prioritize Polymarket for a straightforward resolution based on the actual closing price on September 14th. Avoid Kalshi due to its convoluted threshold system.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Up' if the USD/NOK closing price on September 14, 2026, is higher than the closing price on the previous day. Resolves 'Down' if lower. Equal prices resolve 50-50. Source: Pyth data feed.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the USDNOK opening candlestick is above any of 30 specified thresholds (ranging from 9.231 to 9.289) at 5pm ET on September 11, 2026. Otherwise, resolves 'No'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDNOK exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on September 11, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate is above the specified level (ranging from 9.251 to 9.289), the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect the resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' that can differ from traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be subject to biases or incentives that influence their predictions, whereas prediction markets incentivize participants to express their genuine beliefs. This market’s current pricing incorporates a wide range of information, potentially including factors not fully captured in conventional analyses. Comparing the probabilities offered here with expert opinions can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes for the USD/NOK exchange rate.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, leading to variations in price discovery. Differences in the types of traders participating on each platform—for example, more sophisticated or informed traders on one versus the other—can also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the 24-hour volume on each platform, currently $2,098, can impact price sensitivity and responsiveness to new information related to the USD/NOK exchange rate.

Several economic and geopolitical factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected shifts in US or Norwegian monetary policy, such as interest rate changes, could impact the USD/NOK exchange rate. Major economic data releases from either country, including inflation reports or GDP figures, could also trigger price movements. Geopolitical events, like changes in oil prices (given Norway’s oil-dependent economy) or global risk sentiment, could also play a role. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the probabilities offered on Polymarket and Kalshi.