US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 3? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 3?
Start: 2026-07-31T12:01:13.000Z
End: 2026-08-03T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on August 3, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 3, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 3, 2026, or if August 3, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on August 3, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 3, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 3, 2026, or if August 3, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for the USD/NOK exchange rate market. It shows how traders are betting on whether the USD will rise or fall against the Norwegian Krone by Aug 3, 2026. The interface updates continuously, reflecting the latest market sentiment and trading volume of $40 over the past day.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the odds through buying and selling contracts that pay out based on the USD/NOK movement. The current implied probability reflects supply and demand dynamics among participants. Volume of $40 shows the depth of engagement, while price fluctuations respond to news, economic data releases, and shifts in forex markets that influence expectations for August 3.

This market resolves around Aug 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will see the final settlement based on the actual USD/NOK rate at the specified time, closing all positions and paying out winners accordingly. The exact cutoff and verification process follow the platform’s standard rules for economic events.

Key drivers include central bank announcements from the U.S. Federal Reserve or Norway’s central bank, shifts in interest rate expectations, commodity price changes affecting the Norwegian economy, and broader risk-on or risk-off sentiment in global forex markets. Political developments, geopolitical tensions, or sudden economic data surprises could also cause rapid re-pricing in this market as traders adjust their bets ahead of Aug 3, 2026.

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 3?

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