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US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 24?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 24?

Volume:
$681

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 24?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 24? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 24, 2026

Closed: Aug 24, 7:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 24?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.371

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
$150
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.393

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.373

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.391

View
0%
70%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.375

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
$51
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.427

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.429

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.395

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.377

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.379

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.351

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.397

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.399

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.401

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.403

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.405

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.407

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.409

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.411

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.413

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.415

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.417

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.419

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.421

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group determines whether the USD/NOK exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 24, 2026, compared to the prior reference day, based on specific candlestick data from different platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in resolution logic: Kalshi uses USDNOK opening price on August 21, 2026 against fixed thresholds, while Polymarket uses closing prices comparison between August 24, 2026 and its prior reference day.Hero tip: Do not treat these markets as equivalent — they resolve against different price points (opening vs closing), different dates (August 21 vs August 24), and use entirely different comparison methodologies (threshold crossing vs relative change).

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to "Up" if Pyth 4:59 PM ET close on August 24, 2026 is higher than prior reference day's close; "Down" if lower; 50-50 if equal. Uses closing prices from Pyth data.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to "Yes" if USDNOK opening candlestick is above any of 30 specified thresholds at 5pm ET on August 21, 2026. No "No" outcome defined in provided rules — appears to only trigger "Yes" for threshold breaches.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on August 24, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 24, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 24, 2026, or if August 24, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDNOK exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 21, 2026, as published by Pyth. For each market, if the rate is above the specified threshold (e.g., 9.391, 9.393, etc.), it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The resolution uses the rate rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact time, the most recent available value before the deadline is used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time are disregarded when determining the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Key signals that could shift this market include central bank announcements from the U.S. or Norway, shifts in oil prices, changes in global risk sentiment, and major economic data releases such as CPI or GDP figures. Any surprise policy moves or geopolitical developments that affect either currency’s strength may also cause rapid re-pricing in the market as traders adjust expectations.