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US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 17?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 17?

Volume:
$173

Above 9.505

 - Kalshi

Above 9.505 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 14, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 9.505

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.507

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.495

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
No
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 17?

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.491

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.493

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.497

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.511

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.499

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.501

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.503

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.509

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.513

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.515

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.517

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.519

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.521

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.523

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.525

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.527

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.529

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.471

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.473

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.475

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.477

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This event group tracks whether the USD/NOK exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 17, 2026, compared to a reference point. The markets differ in their specific resolution criteria and reference dates.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets use different dates and price points for resolution: Kalshi uses the USD/NOK opening candlestick at 5pm ET on Aug 14, 2026, while Polymarket uses the USD/NOK close on Aug 17, 2026 compared to the prior reference day.Hero tip: Traders should be aware that these markets resolve based on different dates and price points. Kalshi uses Aug 14 data while Polymarket uses Aug 17 data compared to the prior reference day. This creates potential for divergent outcomes even if the underlying currency pair moves in the same direction.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the value of the USDNOK opening candlestick is Above any of the specified thresholds at 5pm ET on Aug 14, 2026
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if the reference price for USD/NOK on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 17, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 17, 2026, or if August 17, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDNOK exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5:00 PM EDT on August 14, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold, and if the rate is above that threshold at the specified time, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The resolution uses the rate rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data exactly at 5:00 PM EDT, the most recent available value before that time will be used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time are disregarded when determining the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Key signals that could shift this market include central bank announcements from the U.S. Federal Reserve or Norway’s Norges Bank, shifts in oil prices (given Norway’s export dependence), and broader risk-on or risk-off sentiment in global finance. Domestic economic data releases, such as U.S. CPI or Norwegian GDP figures, may also cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust expectations for monetary policy moves.