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US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 10?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 10?

Volume:
$1,122

Above 9.529

 - Kalshi

Above 9.529 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 10, 2026

Closed: Aug 7, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 9.529

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$244
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.531

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$89
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.527

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
$77
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.541

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.555

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.565

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.537

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.561

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.545

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
$35
Settled
No
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on August 10?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.533

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.539

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.543

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.547

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.549

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.551

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.553

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.563

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.521

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.535

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.557

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.559

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.507

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.509

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.511

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This event group tracks whether the USD/NOK exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 10, 2026, compared to a reference point. The markets differ in their specific resolution criteria and reference dates.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in resolution timing and criteria: Kalshi uses August 7 opening price thresholds, while Polymarket uses August 10 closing price comparison to prior dayHero tip: Traders must understand these markets resolve on different dates and price points. Kalshi resolves three days earlier based on opening prices with specific thresholds, while Polymarket resolves on August 10 using closing prices compared to the prior reference day. This creates distinct risk profiles that should be treated as separate bets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if USD/NOK opening candlestick is Above any of 20 specified threshold values (9.527 to 9.565) at 5pm ET on August 7, 2026
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if USD/NOK close at 4:59 PM ET on August 10, 2026 is higher than the close at 4:59 PM ET on the most recent prior reference day; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on August 10, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 10, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 10, 2026, or if August 10, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDNOK exchange rate published by Pyth at 5pm ET on August 7, 2026. The resolution depends on whether the opening candlestick value is above a specified threshold, ranging from 9.527 to 9.565. If the rate at the specified time is above the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Data rounding is to four decimal places. If Pyth data is unavailable at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect the resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Key signals include central bank announcements, especially from the Federal Reserve or Norges Bank, shifts in oil prices, and broader risk-on or risk-off sentiment in global markets. Economic data releases such as U.S. and Norwegian GDP figures, inflation reports, or employment figures could also dramatically affect this market as traders adjust expectations for monetary policy moves.