US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on September 21? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on September 21?
Start: 2026-09-18T12:01:33.000Z
End: 2026-09-21T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 21, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 21, 2026, or if September 21, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 21, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 21, 2026, or if September 21, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/MXN exchange rate being higher or lower on Sep 21, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded, currently at $5, and the 24-hour volume, which is $5. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the direction of the exchange rate. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how participants are pricing the potential outcome of this event.

Currently, the implied probability on Polymarket suggests a strong expectation for a specific direction in the USD/MXN exchange rate. It's interesting to compare this to forecasts from financial analysts and polling data. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, offering a different perspective on the potential movement. Discrepancies between the prediction market and traditional forecasts can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty regarding economic factors influencing the exchange rate.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate for the USD/MXN on that date, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their chosen outcome – up or down – aligned with the actual movement of the exchange rate. The market’s resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 21, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Mexico, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, are key catalysts. Unexpected policy announcements from the Federal Reserve or Banco de México could also trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and shifts in global risk sentiment can also impact currency valuations. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the market’s direction and the overall outlook for the USD/MXN exchange rate.

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