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404,028

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2,681

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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on September 14?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on September 14?

Volume:
$10,903

Above 16.947

 - Kalshi

Above 16.947 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 16.947

View
100%
80%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$451
N/A
N/A
$399
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.951

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$435
N/A
N/A
$435
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.915

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
$312
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.953

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$388
N/A
N/A
$388
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.901

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$374
N/A
N/A
$338
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.959

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$374
N/A
N/A
$374
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.899

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$363
N/A
N/A
$330
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.957

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$342
N/A
N/A
$342
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.927

View
100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$337
N/A
N/A
$322
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.913

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$331
N/A
N/A
$331
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.945

View
100%
86%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$308
N/A
N/A
$262
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.929

View
100%
88%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$292
N/A
N/A
$290
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.943

View
100%
82%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$289
N/A
N/A
$214
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.941

View
100%
81%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$288
N/A
N/A
$238
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.895

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$252
N/A
N/A
$252
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.925

View
100%
74%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$242
N/A
N/A
$217
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.907

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$232
N/A
N/A
$221
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.955

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$229
N/A
N/A
$229
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.935

View
100%
75%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$226
N/A
N/A
$176
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.961

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
$222
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.897

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$212
N/A
N/A
$187
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.919

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$197
N/A
N/A
$190
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.939

View
100%
67%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$196
N/A
N/A
$171
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.933

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.923

View
100%
74%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$181
N/A
N/A
$151
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group asks whether the US Dollar will be stronger or weaker against the Mexican Peso on September 14, 2026. The markets resolve based on the closing price of the USD/MXN exchange rate on that date, comparing it to the prior day's closing price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses a complex series of thresholds on a date *before* the target date, while Polymarket uses a simple comparison of closing prices on the target date and the prior day.Hero tip: The Kalshi market is highly sensitive to small price movements on September 11th and is difficult to interpret. Polymarket provides a more straightforward and intuitive market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Up' if the USD/MXN closing price on September 14, 2026 is higher than the closing price on the prior day, using Pyth data. "This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if the USDMXN opening candlestick is above a series of specific thresholds (ranging from 16.889 to 16.947) at 5pm ET on September 11, 2026. This is a complex, pre-event condition. "If the value of the USDMXN opening candlestick is Above 16.889 at 5pm ET on Sep 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDMXN exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate is above its specified level at that time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at exactly 5:00 PM EDT, the most recent available value before that time will be used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time are disregarded when determining the resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices, like those found in this market, often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may focus on specific economic indicators or political events, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially capturing subtle signals or anticipating unforeseen circumstances. While analyst forecasts can be valuable, the dynamic pricing of this market reflects a continuously updated assessment of probabilities, driven by actual trading volume and diverse participant viewpoints. It’s a useful comparison point to see how collective intelligence aligns with expert opinion.

Several factors could significantly impact the USD/MXN exchange rate and, consequently, this market. Unexpected economic data releases from the United States or Mexico, such as inflation reports or employment figures, could trigger volatility. Geopolitical events, shifts in global risk sentiment, or changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or Banco de México are also potential catalysts. Furthermore, major news related to trade relations between the two countries or significant fluctuations in oil prices could influence the exchange rate and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.