TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on July 20?
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on July 20?

Volume:
$27

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on July 20?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on July 20? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 20, 5:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on July 20?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Pyth-published price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) at 5:00 PM ET on July 20, 2026 is higher than or equal to the Pyth-published price at 5:00 PM ET on the most recent prior trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to the next most recent trading day. If no Pyth-published price is available at exactly 5:00 PM ET on a relevant day — whether due to normal feed timing, a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption preventing verification — the most recent valid Pyth-published price prior to that day's 5:00 PM ET cutoff will be used; if no valid Pyth price exists for that day at all, the most recent prior day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) price feed page: https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. UMA resolvers should verify against the Pyth-published prices for the relevant 5:00 PM ET timestamps.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Pyth-published price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) at 5:00 PM ET on July 20, 2026 is higher than or equal to the Pyth-published price at 5:00 PM ET on the most recent prior trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to the next most recent trading day. If no Pyth-published price is available at exactly 5:00 PM ET on a relevant day — whether due to normal feed timing, a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption preventing verification — the most recent valid Pyth-published price prior to that day's 5:00 PM ET cutoff will be used; if no valid Pyth price exists for that day at all, the most recent prior day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) price feed page: https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. UMA resolvers should verify against the Pyth-published prices for the relevant 5:00 PM ET timestamps.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the USD/MXN exchange rate market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the USD/MXN currency pair. The interface displays current market sentiment on whether the exchange rate will move up or down by the resolution date, along with 24-hour trading volume of $27. Traders use this data to monitor how market participants are pricing directional moves in the peso relative to the dollar, helping investors and speculators gauge consensus on near-term currency dynamics.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money bets rather than survey opinions. While financial analysts publish consensus views on currency direction based on macroeconomic models and central bank policy, this market aggregates the collective judgment of traders who have direct financial incentive to be accurate. Comparing the implied probability here to published analyst sentiment can reveal where the market is pricing in tail risks or opportunities that conventional forecasts may underweight.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into real-time probabilities. Each outcome—up or down—is represented as a tradable contract, and the price of each contract reflects the collective willingness of participants to buy or sell at that level. As traders place orders, the price adjusts continuously, ensuring that the odds always reflect current market sentiment on the direction of the exchange rate by the resolution date.

This market resolves around Jul 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by whether the USD/MXN exchange rate closes above or below its starting level on that date. Traders should monitor official financial data sources and currency market reports as the resolution date approaches to stay informed on the final settlement.

Key catalysts for this market include U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcements, Mexican central bank decisions, and macroeconomic data releases from both countries such as inflation, employment, and GDP figures. Geopolitical developments, trade policy shifts, and changes in commodity prices—particularly oil, which Mexico exports—can also influence the peso. Additionally, broader risk sentiment and capital flows between emerging and developed markets may drive volatility in the exchange rate ahead of the resolution date.