TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 24?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 24?

Volume:
$779

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 24?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 24? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 24, 2026

Closed: Aug 24, 7:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 24?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.979

View
0%
56%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$148
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 16.999

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$140
N/A
N/A
$128
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.009

View
0%
68%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$62
N/A
N/A
$62
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.001

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.003

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.025

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.005

View
0%
72%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.007

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.011

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.017

View
0%
59%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.019

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.027

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.031

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.033

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 16.981

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.013

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.015

View
0%
68%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.049

View
0%
55%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.037

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.021

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.023

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.029

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.035

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.039

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group determines whether the USD/MXN exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 24, 2026, compared to the prior reference day. The outcome depends on the closing price of the USD/MXN pair as published by Pyth.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use Pyth's official closing prices at 4:59 PM ET to compare August 24, 2026 with the most recent prior reference day, resolving to Up/Down based on relative values or 50-50 on equality.Primary resolution logic: Pyth's official 1-minute candle close values at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN

Core resolution logic:

  • Compare the USD/MXN closing price on August 24, 2026 (4:59 PM ET) to the closing price on the most recent prior reference day
  • Resolve to "Up" if August 24 price > prior reference day price
  • Resolve to "Down" if August 24 price < prior reference day price
  • Resolve 50-50 if prices are exactly equal or if no valid price exists for either day

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No valid price on August 24: If no valid Pyth close exists for August 24, the market resolves 50-50
  • No valid price on prior reference day: If no valid Pyth close exists for the prior reference day, use the next most recent valid reference day
  • August 24 is not a trading day: If August 24 is not a trading day under Pyth's schedule, the market resolves 50-50
Timing: Resolution occurs after the 4:59 PM ET close on August 24, 2026, once Pyth publishes the official closing priceOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on August 24, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 24, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 24, 2026, or if August 24, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the USDMXN exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 21, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a specific threshold; if the rate is above the respective threshold at the specified time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. All markets share the same data source and timing, with revisions after expiration disregarded. If Pyth data is unavailable, the most recent value is used. Rounding to four decimal places applies unless specified otherwise. The structure ensures consistent evaluation across all thresholds, linking each outcome directly to the exchange rate's value at the exact expiration moment.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user base, liquidity, and trading activity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform’s unique pool of traders may weight certain signals differently, such as recent economic data releases or geopolitical developments, leading to distinct probability assessments. Additionally, varying volume levels—$779 across all venues versus $173 in the last day—can amplify small shifts into larger price gaps.