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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 17?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 17?

Volume:
$109

Above 17.129

 - Kalshi

Above 17.129 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 14, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 17.129

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$56
N/A
N/A
$56
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.149

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.131

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.117

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.133

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.135

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.137

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.139

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.141

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.143

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.145

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.147

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.151

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.153

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.155

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.157

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.159

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.161

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.163

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.165

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.167

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.125

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.127

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.123

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.109

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This event group determines the direction of the US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) exchange rate on August 17, 2026. The outcome depends on whether the rate is higher or lower than a specific threshold or previous day's closing value, depending on the platform's rules.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets use fundamentally different resolution criteria: Kalshi uses a threshold list from August 14, while Polymarket compares closing prices on August 17 and the prior reference day.Hero tip: Traders should monitor both the August 14 opening candlestick levels and the August 17 closing price relative to the prior reference day. The markets will resolve differently unless the August 14 opening price is above one of the 30 thresholds AND the August 17 close is higher than the prior reference day's close.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the USDMXN opening candlestick is Above any of 30 specified thresholds at 5pm ET on Aug 14, 2026. Key Quote: "If the value of the USDMXN opening candlestick is Above [threshold] at 5pm ET on Aug 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if the reference price (Pyth Close at 4:59 PM ET) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price on the most recent prior reference day. Resolves to Down if lower. Resolves 50-50 if equal. Key Quote: "This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 17, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 17, 2026, or if August 17, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDMXN exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 14, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from 17.129 to 17.167; if the rate at that time is above the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data will be rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact time, the most recent available value before the deadline will be used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time will not affect the resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On some platforms, this market currently reflects a narrower gap between outcomes than traditional analyst forecasts, which often carry wider bands of uncertainty. Prediction markets incorporate real-time trader sentiment and can react faster to news, sometimes pricing in shifts before they appear in formal reports. The contrast helps identify where crowd wisdom diverges from institutional views.