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406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

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VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 10?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 10?

Volume:
$858

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 10?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 10? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 10, 2026

Closed: Aug 10, 7:01 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on August 10?

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 17.289

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.287

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.291

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.313

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
$60
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.315

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
$60
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.283

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.293

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.295

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.297

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.279

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.303

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.305

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.277

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.281

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.285

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.299

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.309

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.311

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.301

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.307

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group tracks whether the USD/MXN exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 10, 2026, compared to a reference point. The markets differ in their specific resolution criteria and data sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in resolution criteria and timeframes between platformsHero tip: Do not treat these markets as equivalent. Polymarket resolves based on price movement between reference days on August 10, while Kalshi resolves based on a single price threshold at a different time (August 7 opening).

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if USD/MXN closing price at 4:59 PM ET on August 10, 2026 is higher than the closing price on the most recent prior reference day. Resolves to Down if lower. Ties resolve 50-50. Uses Pyth data as source.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if USDMXN opening candlestick is above any of the specified thresholds (17.277 to 17.315) at 5pm ET on August 7, 2026. No 'No' outcome specified in provided rules.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on August 10, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 10, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 10, 2026, or if August 10, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDMXN exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 7, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from 17.277 to 17.315. If the rate at that time is above the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish a value at the specified time, the most recent available value is used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time are disregarded when determining the resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the USD/MXN exchange rate market shows real-time aggregated odds from multiple venues, letting you see how traders across platforms view the future value of this pair. It displays current probabilities, trading volume of $858, and 24-hour volume of $133, offering a snapshot of market sentiment and liquidity for short-term forex movements.