US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on September 28? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on September 28?
Start: 2026-09-25T12:01:22.000Z
End: 2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/JPY exchange rate being higher or lower on September 28th. You’ll find a live feed of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $10, providing insight into how actively traders are participating in this market. Total volume for this market is $10.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a strong expectation for a specific direction in the USD/JPY exchange rate. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often present a range of possibilities and probabilities. While analysts may offer nuanced perspectives based on economic indicators and geopolitical factors, this market distills those factors into a single, quantifiable probability. It’s important to remember that prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders, while analyst forecasts represent individual opinions.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing price of the USD/JPY exchange rate on September 28th, as reported by a recognized financial data provider. The direction of the exchange rate – whether it is higher or lower than its current level – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to claim their winnings shortly after the resolution is finalized.

Several key economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly influence the USD/JPY exchange rate and, consequently, this market. Major factors include interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, unexpected shifts in inflation data, and any significant developments in global trade relations. Additionally, unforeseen political events or natural disasters could introduce volatility into the currency markets, prompting traders to reassess their positions and adjust the odds in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price movements.

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