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US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on September 14?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on September 14?

Volume:
$4,033

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on September 14?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on September 14? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 7:01 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on September 14?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 154.367

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$289
N/A
N/A
$227
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.369

View
0%
66%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$264
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.413

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
$115
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.383

View
0%
77%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
$107
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.347

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$173
N/A
N/A
$173
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.397

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$166
N/A
N/A
$98
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.377

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$156
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.425

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$153
N/A
N/A
$56
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.391

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$149
N/A
N/A
$98
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.431

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$140
N/A
N/A
$82
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.439

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
$134
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.349

View
0%
93%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$127
N/A
N/A
$127
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.371

View
0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$45
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.427

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.417

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$118
N/A
N/A
$68
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.387

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$116
N/A
N/A
$71
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.435

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
$58
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.421

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
$64
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.389

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
$58
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.401

View
0%
52%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
$36
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.379

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
$42
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.381

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$88
N/A
N/A
$19
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.423

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$81
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 154.405

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$73
N/A
N/A
$68
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 58

Description

This event group asks whether the US Dollar will be up or down against the Japanese Yen on September 14, 2026. 'Up' means the USD/JPY exchange rate will be higher than the previous day's closing price, and 'Down' means it will be lower. An equal price results in a 50-50 resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses a pre-event price threshold on September 11, 2026, while Polymarket uses the price change on September 14, 2026, compared to the prior day.Hero tip: Be aware that these markets are measuring different things. Kalshi is a series of binary outcomes based on a specific date and time, while Polymarket is a directional bet on the price change on the target date. Consider your trading strategy accordingly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Up' if the USD/JPY price on September 14, 2026, is higher than the previous day's close, using Pyth data. Resolves 50-50 if prices are equal or data is unavailable.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if the USD/JPY price is above a series of specific thresholds (ranging from 154.367 to 154.439) at 5pm ET on September 11, 2026. Each threshold represents a separate 'Yes' condition.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDJPY exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each individual market has a unique threshold value; if the rate at that time is above the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect the resolution. This structure applies uniformly across all thresholds, ensuring consistent evaluation methodology for each market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. This market, for example, represents the collective wisdom of traders actively putting their capital at risk, which can lead to more accurate predictions. While analyst forecasts rely on models and individual judgment, prediction markets aggregate a broader range of information and incentives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. Examining both prediction market prices and analyst forecasts provides a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes for the USD/JPY exchange rate.