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US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on July 13?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on July 13?

Volume:
$7,323

162.000 to 162.249

 - Kalshi

162.000 to 162.249 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

162.000 to 162.249

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$488
N/A
N/A
$445
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on July 13?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

160.500 to 160.749

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,096
N/A
N/A
$2,018
Settled
No
kalshi

162.750 to 162.999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,089
N/A
N/A
$1,089
Settled
No
kalshi

163.000 to 163.249

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$997
N/A
N/A
$997
Settled
No
kalshi

161.500 to 161.749

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$620
N/A
N/A
$304
Settled
No
kalshi

163.25 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$582
N/A
N/A
$544
Settled
No
kalshi

161.750 to 161.999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$415
N/A
N/A
$288
Settled
No
kalshi

162.250 to 162.499

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$290
N/A
N/A
$287
Settled
No
kalshi

160.000 to 160.249

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$216
N/A
N/A
$216
Settled
No
kalshi

161.250 to 161.499

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$133
N/A
N/A
$133
Settled
No
kalshi

162.500 to 162.749

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
$108
Settled
No
kalshi

160.250 to 160.499

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
$107
Settled
No
kalshi

161.000 to 161.249

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
$76
Settled
No
kalshi

160.750 to 160.999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$77
Settled
No
kalshi

159.999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks whether the USD/JPY exchange rate moves up or down on July 13, 2026. Polymarket compares the 5:00 PM ET Pyth-published price on July 13 to the prior trading day's 5:00 PM ET price, while Kalshi evaluates the 10:00 AM EDT opening price against fixed price bands. The markets use different measurement times, data sources, and resolution methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible resolution methodologies: Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day price comparison at 5:00 PM ET via Pyth, while Kalshi uses an absolute opening price at 10:00 AM EDT against fixed bands with no specified data source.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket's Up outcome depends on whether the 5:00 PM ET price rises from the prior trading day; Kalshi's Yes outcome is triggered by any opening price in its 15 predefined bands (which collectively cover all realistic price levels). The 7-hour time gap (10:00 AM vs 5:00 PM ET) and different comparison methods mean the same underlying price movement can produce different outcomes. Choose your platform based on your preferred measurement time and data source.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Relative comparison market using Pyth-published USD/JPY at 5:00 PM ET on July 13 vs. 5:00 PM ET on the most recent prior trading day. Resolves Up if current >= prior, Down otherwise. Includes fallback logic for missing data: uses most recent valid Pyth price before 5:00 PM ET if exact timestamp unavailable, or most recent prior day with valid price if no price exists for July 13.
  • Kalshi: Absolute price band market using the opening price of USD/JPY at 10:00 AM EDT on July 13. All 15 resolution conditions (covering prices below 160.000 through above 163.249) resolve to Yes. No specified data source, no fallback logic, and no explicit No outcome defined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Pyth-published price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) at 5:00 PM ET on July 13, 2026 is higher than or equal to the Pyth-published price at 5:00 PM ET on the most recent prior trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to the next most recent trading day. If no Pyth-published price is available at exactly 5:00 PM ET on a relevant day — whether due to normal feed timing, a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption preventing verification — the most recent valid Pyth-published price prior to that day's 5:00 PM ET cutoff will be used; if no valid Pyth price exists for that day at all, the most recent prior day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) price feed page: https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. UMA resolvers should verify against the Pyth-published prices for the relevant 5:00 PM ET timestamps.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the opening price of USD/JPY on July 13, 2026 at 10 AM EDT. The price range is divided into fifteen consecutive bands, each spanning 0.250 yen, beginning at 159.999 and below and extending to 163.250 and above. Each band represents a distinct outcome, and resolution occurs when the opening price falls within one of these defined ranges. The exact opening price at the specified time and date serves as the sole determinant for which outcome resolves affirmatively.

Frequently asked questions

The USD/JPY exchange rate market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on whether the dollar will strengthen or weaken against the yen by July 13, 2026. This market reflects real-time consensus on currency movement, with trading volume of $7,323 across both venues. Traders use these prediction markets to hedge exposure, speculate on macroeconomic shifts, or benchmark their own forecasts against crowd sentiment. The dashboard displays current odds, historical price action, and trading activity to help participants assess conviction levels on near-term yen-dollar dynamics.

Prediction markets often diverge from traditional analyst consensus because they aggregate dispersed trader beliefs in real time, whereas analyst forecasts reflect periodic surveys or models. This market's odds incorporate live information—central bank signals, economic data, and geopolitical events—that may not yet be reflected in published research. Traders with asymmetric information or contrarian views can move prices quickly, sometimes leading or lagging consensus. Comparing this market's implied probability to major bank FX forecasts reveals whether the crowd is pricing in tail risks or overlooking near-term catalysts that analysts have flagged.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy announcements, US and Japanese economic data releases, and geopolitical developments affecting risk sentiment. Inflation reports, employment figures, and yield curve shifts typically drive near-term FX volatility. Safe-haven flows during market stress often strengthen the yen, while risk-on sentiment favors the dollar. Traders monitor central bank rhetoric, trade tensions, and commodity prices as leading indicators. Unexpected economic surprises or emergency policy moves can trigger sharp repricing in this market within hours.