TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 24?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 24?

Volume:
$1,521

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 24?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 24? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 24, 2026

Closed: Aug 24, 7:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 24?

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 159.269

View
0%
37%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$321
N/A
N/A
$225
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.231

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$318
N/A
N/A
$270
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.235

View
0%
85%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$149
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.233

View
0%
84%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$148
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.243

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.237

View
0%
85%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$74
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.241

View
0%
85%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$74
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.257

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$73
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.247

View
0%
71%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
$59
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.245

View
0%
79%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$56
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.239

View
0%
87%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.255

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.249

View
0%
76%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.251

View
0%
76%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.253

View
0%
75%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
$29
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.259

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.261

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.263

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.265

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 159.267

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group tracks whether the USD/JPY exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 24, 2026, compared to a reference day. The resolution depends on specific price thresholds and reference mechanisms defined by each platform.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms use fundamentally different resolution criteria: Kalshi relies on a fixed threshold at a specific time on August 21, while Polymarket compares reference prices on consecutive days.Hero tip: Traders should carefully consider the differing resolution mechanics before positioning. The Kalshi market resolves based on a single data point on August 21, whereas the Polymarket market depends on a comparison of prices across two days.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the value of the USDJPY opening candlestick is Above 159.231 at 5pm ET on Aug 21, 2026.
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if the reference price for USD/JPY on August 24, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on August 24, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 24, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 24, 2026, or if August 24, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDJPY exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 21, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate is above its specified level at that time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at exactly 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time will be used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time are disregarded when determining the resolution.