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US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 17?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 17?

Volume:
$3,612

Above 158.903

 - Kalshi

Above 158.903 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 14, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 158.903

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$553
N/A
N/A
$411
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.911

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$444
N/A
N/A
$288
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.937

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$352
N/A
N/A
$292
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.909

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$330
N/A
N/A
$114
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.905

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$232
N/A
N/A
$194
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.907

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
$160
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.935

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$166
N/A
N/A
$156
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.939

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$161
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.915

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.925

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
$97
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.941

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$95
N/A
N/A
$86
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.933

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$83
N/A
N/A
$83
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.927

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
$78
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.931

View
100%
36%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$77
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.919

View
100%
39%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
$76
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.923

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
$66
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.913

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$61
N/A
N/A
$61
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.929

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
$58
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.959

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
$39
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.951

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.917

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.921

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.943

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.947

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 158.949

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group determines whether the USD/JPY exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 17, 2026, compared to a reference price. The outcome depends on specific price thresholds and reference methodologies defined by each platform.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in resolution timing and methodology: Kalshi uses August 14 opening prices against fixed thresholds while Polymarket uses August 17 closing prices compared to the prior reference dayHero tip: Avoid arbitrage strategies between these markets as they resolve on different dates and price criteria. Focus on the specific resolution rules of each platform when trading

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Pyth's 4:59 PM ET closing price comparison between August 17, 2026, and the prior reference day. Uses a direct price comparison with a 50-50 tiebreaker. Reference price is the 'Close' value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET
  • Kalshi: Resolves if the USDJPY opening candlestick at 5pm ET on August 14, 2026, is above any of 30 specified threshold values (ranging from 158.903 to 158.961). No tiebreaker mechanism described
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 17, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 17, 2026, or if August 17, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDJPY exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 14, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate at that time is above the specified level, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data rounding assumes four decimal places. If Pyth data is unavailable at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the underlying rate do not affect the resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this market reflects trader sentiment through dynamically updated probabilities, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts that rely on economic indicators and central bank policies. While analysts may publish target ranges or scenario analyses, prediction markets incorporate real-time betting activity, sometimes producing sharper or contrarian signals based on crowd wisdom.