This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on September 21, 2026 is lower than the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the most recent prior trading day. For each trading day, the reference price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent reference price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the US Dollar Index (DXY) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, this market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule (time zone America/New_York), trading is open continuously from 5:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with no daily settlement break, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. Under the standard New York 5:00 PM FX close convention, each trading day begins at 5:00 PM ET on the preceding calendar day and ends at 5:00 PM ET on that calendar day. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth "Close" value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective reference price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the reference price for that day may be determined using the official settlement value for the spot U.S. Dollar Index for that trading day, as published by ICE Futures U.S. in its "Futures Daily Market Report for US Dollar Index" dated as of that trading day. This report may be accessed by selecting "End of Day Report" under the "Reports" tab of the product page at https://www.ice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures. The relevant value is the one shown in the "Settle Price" column for the row with Commodity Name "DX" and Contract Month "SPOT". If no such spot settlement value is published for that trading day, the "Settle Price" value shown in the same report for the most actively traded (by open interest) ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract month (ticker DX) may be used instead. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of an index methodology change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles available at https://app.pyth.com/explore/FX.USDXY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the DXY direction market tracks the current odds of the US Dollar Index (DXY) increasing or decreasing in value by September 21. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $5. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, which is $5, offering insight into recent trading activity and market interest. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the DXY’s future direction.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the DXY’s likely movement, which may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for the DXY, this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and expert opinions, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and sentiment. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market confidence and potential surprises regarding the DXY’s performance leading up to Sep 21, 2026.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the DXY will be up or down on September 21. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution date, the more the price will likely fluctuate as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. The current volume indicates significant interest in this particular financial instrument.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the closing price of the US Dollar Index (DXY) on September 21 is higher or lower than its price at the market’s launch. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or acknowledge their losses based on the final result.

Several key economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly influence this market. Major factors include US Federal Reserve policy announcements regarding interest rates, unexpected shifts in inflation data, and significant changes in global economic growth forecasts. Geopolitical events, such as unexpected political instability or major trade disputes, could also drive fluctuations in the DXY. Any surprising news related to the US economy or its trading partners has the potential to move this market considerably before Sep 21, 2026, as traders react to the changing risk landscape.

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