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US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on September 14?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on September 14?

Volume:
$2,538

Above 5.105

 - Kalshi

Above 5.105 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5.105

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$162
N/A
N/A
$114
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.091

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
$108
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.087

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
$53
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.085

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
$76
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.107

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$36
N/A
N/A
$33
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.121

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
$29
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.089

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.081

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.101

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on September 14?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.109

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.115

View
100%
72%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.119

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.117

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.111

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.113

View
100%
76%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.099

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.097

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.095

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.093

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.065

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.067

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.069

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.071

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.073

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group asks whether the US Dollar will strengthen or weaken against the Brazilian Real on September 14, 2026. Polymarket resolves based on whether the closing price on that day is higher than the previous day, while Kalshi uses a series of thresholds based on the opening price on September 11, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets use entirely different settlement criteria – Polymarket compares prices on September 14th, while Kalshi uses thresholds on September 11th.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with distinct predictions. Do not attempt to hedge or correlate positions across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Up' if the USD/BRL closing price on September 14, 2026, is higher than the closing price on the previous trading day. Uses Pyth data for the 4:59 PM ET candle.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if the USD/BRL opening candlestick is above a series of predefined thresholds at 5:00 PM ET on September 11, 2026. Multiple thresholds exist, ranging from 5.085 to 5.143.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FBRL. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the opening candlestick value of the USDBRL exchange rate published by Pyth at 5pm ET on September 11, 2026. For each market, if the rate at that specific time is above the stated threshold — ranging from 5.105 to 5.143 — the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The resolution uses the most recent available data from Pyth if no value is published exactly at 5pm ET. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate are disregarded. All values are rounded to four decimal places unless otherwise specified.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential catalysts. This market, for example, incorporates real-time expectations about Brazilian economic data releases, Federal Reserve policy, and global risk sentiment. Discrepancies between prediction market prices and analyst forecasts can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors. Examining both sources can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential movements in the USD/BRL exchange rate.