TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on August 24?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on August 24?

Volume:
$2,199

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on August 24?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on August 24? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 24, 2026

Closed: Aug 24, 7:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on August 24?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.221

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$245
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.185

View
0%
64%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$227
N/A
N/A
$202
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.195

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$227
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.219

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
$133
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.201

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$181
N/A
N/A
$169
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.217

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$176
N/A
N/A
$164
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$154
N/A
N/A
$154
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.223

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.193

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$116
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.189

View
0%
59%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$79
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.165

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.209

View
0%
53%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.215

View
0%
53%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.169

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.173

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.187

View
0%
54%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.197

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.205

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.211

View
0%
56%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.213

View
0%
54%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.207

View
0%
54%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$8
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.191

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.203

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.167

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether the USD/BRL exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 24, 2026, compared to a reference day. The resolution depends on specific price thresholds and reference mechanisms defined by each platform.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental logic divergence: Kalshi uses a threshold-based binary trigger on August 21, while Polymarket uses a comparative price movement mechanism between reference daysHero tip: Avoid cross-platform hedging without explicit threshold mapping. Kalshi resolves based on a single day's opening price against fixed thresholds, while Polymarket resolves based on price direction between two reference days. Treat these as separate bets with distinct resolution paths.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 30 separate threshold conditions checking if USD/BRL opening candlestick is Above specific values at 5pm ET on Aug 21, 2026
  • Polymarket: Compares Pyth 4:59 PM ET close prices between August 24, 2026 and the most recent prior reference day, with 50-50 tie resolution
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) on August 24, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 24, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 24, 2026, or if August 24, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FBRL. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the open value of the USDBRL exchange rate published by Pyth at 5pm ET on August 21, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold; if the rate is above that threshold at the specified time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise it resolves to No. Revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time are not considered in determining the outcome. If Pyth does not publish data at exactly 5pm ET, the most recently available value before that time will be used. All rates are rounded to four decimal places for evaluation.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the USD/BRL exchange rate market aggregates data from multiple venues so you can see how traders across platforms are pricing the likelihood of the Brazilian real strengthening or weakening against the U.S. dollar by August 24. It shows real-time odds, volume of $2,199, and 24-hour volume of $1,259, letting you compare sentiment and activity without having to visit each exchange individually.

Key signals that could shift this market include Brazilian or U.S. central bank announcements, shifts in commodity prices that affect the real, changes in global risk sentiment, and geopolitical developments impacting capital flows. Traders will also watch U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals, as these influence dollar strength and can quickly alter market expectations ahead of the August 24 deadline.