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US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on August 17?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on August 17?

Volume:
$2,169

Above 5.091

 - Kalshi

Above 5.091 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 14, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5.091

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
$57
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.097

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
$45
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.099

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$103
N/A
N/A
$103
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.083

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$77
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.071

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$77
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on August 17?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.103

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.089

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
$57
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.109

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.081

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$28
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.093

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$28
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.085

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.087

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.101

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.107

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.117

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.119

View
100%
22%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.073

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.075

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.077

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.079

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.095

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.105

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.111

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.115

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 71

Description

This event group determines whether the US Dollar to Brazilian Real exchange rate (USD/BRL) will be higher or lower on August 17, 2026, compared to a reference day. The outcome depends on specific price thresholds and reference mechanisms defined by each platform.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms use fundamentally different resolution mechanisms: Kalshi relies on a single date (Aug 14) with multiple price thresholds, while Polymarket compares prices across two dates (August 17 vs prior reference day).Hero tip: Traders should carefully verify which platform they are using due to the distinct resolution rules. Kalshi's market resolves based on Aug 14 prices against 30 thresholds, while Polymarket resolves based on the price movement between August 17 and the prior reference day. Always confirm the exact resolution source and timing for each platform.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the USD/BRL opening candlestick is Above any of 30 specified thresholds at 5pm ET on Aug 14, 2026. No explicit 'Down' outcome defined in provided rules.
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if the reference price (Pyth 4:59 PM ET close) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price on the most recent prior reference day. Resolves to Down if lower, and 50-50 if equal. Uses Pyth data as the source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 17, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 17, 2026, or if August 17, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FBRL. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the opening candlestick value of the USDBRL exchange rate published by Pyth at 5pm ET on August 14, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate is above the specified level at that time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth data is unavailable at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Key signals that could shift this market include Brazilian central bank policy announcements, U.S. inflation data releases, and shifts in commodity prices that affect the real. Political developments in either country, changes in trade balances, or unexpected capital flow volatility may also create rapid re-pricing. Traders should monitor economic calendars closely and stay alert to any geopolitical headlines that might influence currency demand in the weeks ahead.