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US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on August 10?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on August 10?

Volume:
$5,032

Above 5.077

 - Kalshi

Above 5.077 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 10, 2026

Closed: Aug 7, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5.077

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,686
N/A
N/A
$1,272
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.059

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$388
N/A
N/A
$288
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.067

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$365
N/A
N/A
$315
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.075

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$291
N/A
N/A
$182
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.061

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$278
N/A
N/A
$278
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.063

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$206
N/A
N/A
$206
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.065

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$197
N/A
N/A
$197
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.071

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
$164
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.093

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$158
N/A
N/A
$80
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.083

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$154
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.069

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$151
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.079

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.073

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$118
N/A
N/A
$117
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.085

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.089

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.091

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.095

View
100%
22%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.087

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on August 10?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.097

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.111

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$82
N/A
N/A
$82
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.115

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.117

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.113

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.081

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This event group tracks whether the US Dollar to Brazilian Real exchange rate (USD/BRL) will be higher or lower on August 10, 2026, compared to a reference price from the prior trading day.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in settlement logic: Kalshi uses an August 7 opening candlestick threshold test, while Polymarket uses an August 10 close comparison to the prior reference day.Hero tip: Do not treat these markets as equivalent. Kalshi's resolution depends entirely on August 7 price action against static thresholds, while Polymarket depends on August 10 price action relative to the prior reference day. Trade accordingly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to "Up" if the Pyth 4:59 PM ET close on August 10, 2026 is higher than the prior reference day's close; "Down" if lower; 50-50 if equal. Uses Pyth's official close values.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to "Yes" if the USD/BRL opening candlestick is above any of 30 specified thresholds at 5pm ET on August 7, 2026. No direct comparison to August 10 prices.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) on August 10, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 10, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 10, 2026, or if August 10, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FBRL. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the opening candlestick value of the USDBRL exchange rate published by Pyth at 5pm ET on August 7, 2026. For each market, if the rate is above the specified threshold (e.g., 5.059, 5.061, etc.), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The resolution uses the rate rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth data is unavailable at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect the resolution. This consistent framework applies uniformly across all thresholds, ensuring transparent and uniform evaluation for each market.

Frequently asked questions

Key drivers for this market include Brazilian central bank policy decisions, shifts in U.S. interest rate expectations, and broader risk-on or risk-off sentiment in global markets. Commodity price swings—especially for Brazil’s export staples—can also impact the real’s valuation. Geopolitical tensions or sudden capital flow changes may produce rapid moves. Traders will watch economic data releases from both countries, including inflation figures and employment reports, as well as any statements from key policymakers that hint at future monetary action.