TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 11, 2026
kalshi

What will US crude oil inventories be?

Volume:
$1

Above 419 million barrels

 - Kalshi

Above 419 million barrels - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Closed: Sep 16, 10:29 AM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 419 million barrels

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 420 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 421 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 422 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 423 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 424 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 425 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 426 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 427 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 428 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 429 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 430 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 431 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event tracks U.S. commercial crude oil inventory levels for a specific week, focusing on whether stocks exceed various thresholds. The data comes from a government agency report that excludes strategic reserves, providing insight into supply conditions.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending September 11, 2026, exceed specified thresholds, ranging from 419 to 431 million barrels. The underlying data source is the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which reports inventory levels excluding crude oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The EIA reports the statistic in thousand barrels, which is converted directly to millions of barrels for market resolution. Only the first EIA publication for the specified week is used; any subsequent revisions do not affect the outcome. Each market corresponds to a distinct threshold, with resolution occurring if inventories are strictly above that threshold.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the US crude oil inventories market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the weekly US crude oil inventories report. It displays the implied probabilities based on trading activity, the price history of contracts representing different inventory levels, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $1. You can also see the total volume traded to date, which stands at $1. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely change in crude oil inventories.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts typically publish point estimates or ranges for the change in crude oil inventories, this market allows traders to express beliefs about the probability of various outcomes. This can lead to divergences, particularly when significant uncertainty exists or when traders have access to unique information. It’s common to see this market incorporate information faster than analyst consensus, potentially offering a more dynamic assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official US crude oil inventories data for the week ending September 11, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual change in crude oil inventories as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The contract corresponding to the closest reported inventory change will be considered the winning outcome, and payouts will be calculated accordingly.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events impacting oil supply, changes in refinery demand, or even weather patterns affecting oil production and transportation could all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any revisions to prior inventory reports or significant shifts in economic forecasts related to oil demand could cause price fluctuations. Major news releases concerning OPEC+ production decisions or US energy policy are also likely to impact trading activity in this market.