TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 23, 2026
kalshi

What will US crude oil inventories be?

Volume:
$87

Above 407 million barrels

 - Kalshi

Above 407 million barrels - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 10:29 AM EST

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Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 407 million barrels

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$13
1d 14h 18m
Yes
kalshi

Above 410 million barrels

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$7
1d 14h 18m
Yes
kalshi

Above 413 million barrels

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
$21
1d 14h 18m
No
kalshi

Above 414 million barrels

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$8
1d 14h 18m
No
kalshi

Above 411 million barrels

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
1d 14h 18m
No
kalshi

Above 412 million barrels

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
1d 14h 18m
No
kalshi

Above 415 million barrels

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
1d 14h 18m
No
kalshi

Above 416 million barrels

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
1d 14h 18m
No
kalshi

Above 406 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14h 18m
Yes
kalshi

Above 408 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14h 18m
Yes
kalshi

Above 409 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14h 18m
Yes
kalshi

Above 417 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14h 18m
No
kalshi

Above 418 million barrels

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14h 18m
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event tracks U.S. commercial crude oil inventory levels for a specific week, focusing on whether stocks exceed various thresholds. The data comes from an official government agency report, providing insight into supply conditions and potential market impacts.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending October 23, 2026, exceed specified thresholds, ranging from 406 to 418 million barrels. The underlying data source is the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which reports inventory levels excluding crude oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The EIA reports the statistic in thousand barrels, which is converted directly to millions of barrels for market resolution. Only the first EIA publication for the specified week is used; subsequent revisions do not affect the outcome. Each market has a unique threshold, and resolution depends on whether the reported inventory level is strictly above that threshold.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the US crude oil inventories market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the weekly US crude oil inventories report. You’ll find a price history showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $43. Total volume for this market is $82. This provides a clear view of how traders are positioning themselves ahead of the report's release, reflecting collective expectations about supply and demand dynamics.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on models and historical data, this market incorporates a wider range of information and real-time sentiment. Discrepancies can arise due to factors not easily quantifiable in traditional analysis, such as geopolitical risks or unexpected supply disruptions. It’s common to see this market anticipating changes before they are fully reflected in consensus analyst estimates, offering a potentially leading indicator of market expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible inventory levels. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing market sentiment, making it a responsive indicator of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official US crude oil inventories data for the week ending October 23, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the figures released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which are widely considered the standard for US oil inventory data. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome aligned with the reported inventory level.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected geopolitical events in oil-producing regions, such as conflicts or political instability, would likely cause price fluctuations. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any significant changes in OPEC+ production policy or unexpected disruptions to US oil production, like hurricanes impacting Gulf Coast refineries, could move this market substantially before Nov 4, 2026.