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US consumer confidence on Jun 11, 2026
kalshi

US consumer confidence on Jun 11, 2026

Volume:
$525

Above 76.3

 - Kalshi

Above 76.3 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 11, 7:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 76.3

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$525
N/A
N/A
$310
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 76.8

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 77.3

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 77.8

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 78.3

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 78.8

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 79.3

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 79.8

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 80.3

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 80.8

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 81.3

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 81.8

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 82.3

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 82.8

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 83.3

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

Consumer confidence levels in the United States will be measured on June 11, 2026, through the Truflation index. This metric reflects public sentiment about economic conditions and willingness to spend.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the Truflation US Consumer Confidence Index on June 11, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific index level, ranging from 76.3 to 83.3 in 0.5-point increments. The actual index value on the resolution date will be compared against these thresholds to determine the applicable outcome. Higher index values indicate greater consumer confidence in economic conditions.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from consensus analyst forecasts because traders incorporate real-time information, sentiment, and tail risks that traditional surveys may miss. While economists and polling firms publish point estimates and ranges for consumer confidence indices, prediction markets aggregate distributed bets from thousands of participants with financial incentives to be accurate. The Kalshi odds reflect dynamic repricing as new economic data, Fed communications, and employment reports emerge. Comparing market-implied probabilities to analyst consensus can reveal where traders see upside or downside surprises relative to mainstream expectations.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, US consumer confidence outcomes are priced as binary or range-based contracts reflecting the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index or similar official releases expected on or near June 11, 2026. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price directly represents the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As new economic signals emerge—jobless claims, retail sales, inflation data—Kalshi prices adjust in real time. The platform's order book shows bid-ask spreads and depth, allowing traders to enter positions at their preferred risk-reward levels.

The US consumer confidence market resolves on Jun 19, 2026, giving traders a window to trade after the official data release on June 11, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual consumer confidence figure published by the Conference Board or the relevant government statistical agency on that date. The market outcome is binary or range-based depending on contract structure, and settlement occurs once the official number is confirmed and verified against the contract terms. Traders should monitor the exact release time and any revisions to prior months' data.

Key drivers of US consumer confidence heading into June 2026 include employment data, wage growth, inflation trends, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and geopolitical developments. Strong job creation and rising real wages typically boost confidence, while recession fears, layoff announcements, or rate hikes can suppress it. Stock market volatility, housing affordability, and consumer credit conditions also influence sentiment. Additionally, unexpected fiscal policy changes, trade developments, or external shocks could shift expectations. Traders monitoring Kalshi should watch monthly jobs reports, CPI releases, Fed communications, and consumer spending data as leading indicators of the June 11 outcome.