TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

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4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

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US building permits for September
kalshi

What will US building permits be?

Volume:
$12,228

Above 1.300M

 - Kalshi

Above 1.300M - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 8:29 AM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1.300M

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,722
N/A
N/A
$3,628
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.350M

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$421
N/A
N/A
$406
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.250M

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$66
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.450M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,549
N/A
N/A
$1,679
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.400M

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,408
N/A
N/A
$817
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.550M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.500M

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks the performance of US building permits for September 2026, focusing on whether the initial reported figures exceed various threshold levels. Building permits represent authorizations for construction projects and serve as an indicator of future building activity. The outcome depends on the first published data, without considering any subsequent revisions.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on whether the first-published U.S. building permits value for September 2026, as reported in the Census New Residential Construction report and reflected by Trading Economics on the initial release date, exceeds specified threshold levels ranging from 1.250M to 1.550M (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). All markets share the same underlying data source and resolution methodology: only the initial release is considered; later revised, final, or updated figures—including the revised permits release approximately one week after the initial announcement—are explicitly excluded from resolution determinations. Each market’s 'Yes' outcome is triggered solely by the initial figure surpassing its respective threshold, with no market influencing another’s resolution beyond this shared data dependency.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the US housing permits market tracks the current odds of various outcomes related to the number of new building permits issued in the United States. You can view the implied probabilities, price history, and 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,525. The total volume traded on this market is $12,228. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions evolve as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders believe the actual number of permits will land.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for US housing permits. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market allows traders to express a probability distribution over all possible outcomes. This can reveal divergences in expectations—for example, if the market assigns a higher probability to a significant downturn than most analysts predict. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on economic models and surveys, while this market represents the collective judgment of informed traders.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for US housing permits. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news releases, economic data, and overall market sentiment regarding the housing sector. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official US building permits data for September is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the number of privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits issued by state and local governments. The data is typically released by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Commerce. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and whether their predictions were accurate following the official data release and verification process.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as changes in interest rates or unemployment figures, could influence expectations for housing demand. News regarding housing starts, existing home sales, or builder confidence could also impact trading activity. Geopolitical events or shifts in government policy related to housing could also play a role. Any information that alters the outlook for the US housing sector is likely to cause price fluctuations in this market.