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US building permits for May
kalshi

US building permits for May

Volume:
$3,767

Above 1.400M

 - Kalshi

Above 1.400M - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1.400M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,319
N/A
N/A
$812
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.350M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$800
N/A
N/A
$169
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.300M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$622
N/A
N/A
$299
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.250M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.450M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$912
N/A
N/A
$356
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.500M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$89
N/A
N/A
$72
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.550M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether US building permits issued in May 2026 will exceed 1.250 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, reflecting the volume of residential construction activity authorized during that month. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 93.5%. Resolution will be determined by the official US building permits data for May 2026. Watch for the release of the Census Bureau's building permits report scheduled for late June 2026, which will provide the definitive monthly figure needed to settle this contract.

Kalshi

Resolution uses the first-published U.S. building permits value for May 2026 from the Census New Residential Construction report as reflected by Trading Economics on the initial release date. Subsequent revisions or updated releases are not used for resolution. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific threshold level, with resolution to Yes if the initial reported value exceeds that threshold.

Frequently asked questions

The US building permits for May dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this economic event. You can monitor the current implied probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $1,162. The dashboard displays how traders are pricing the likelihood of US building permits reaching or exceeding key thresholds for May 2026. This live data helps you understand market sentiment and positioning as the resolution date approaches.

The market resolves on Jun 23, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official US Census Bureau release of building permit data for May 2026. The outcome hinges on whether the total number of permits issued meets or exceeds the specified threshold. Once the Census Bureau publishes its monthly housing starts and permits report, the contract settles based on the reported figure, and traders' positions are finalized according to the outcome.

Key catalysts include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, mortgage rate movements, and housing affordability trends. Construction cost inflation, labor availability, and regulatory changes at federal or state levels can shift builder confidence and permitting activity. Economic data releases such as employment reports, consumer sentiment, and existing home sales provide context for housing demand. Additionally, any policy announcements regarding zoning, environmental standards, or construction incentives could influence the pace of permit applications leading up to the May data release.