TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 13, 11:59 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the United States will sign a written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran in a specific location or on a specific date by {date}, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and definitively state that the United States or an authorized official of the United States will sign a written agreement to which both the United States and Iran are parties, at a specified location and/or on a specified date. Qualifying statements must either identify a country or more specifically defined location in which the signing will take place, or the specific calendar date on which the specified signing will happen. Statements limited to a general location or timeframe not meeting this standard will not count. Non-definitive statements, including conditional, exploratory, or tentative statements do not count (e.g. "the signing will take place if Iran agrees" or "we might sign on June 13"). Statements that merely describe a signing without firmly scheduling a location or date will not qualify. Statements that announce a meeting without indicating that the signing of a written agreement will occur will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether an agreement is signed absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the United States will sign a written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran in a specific location or on a specific date by {date}, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and definitively state that the United States or an authorized official of the United States will sign a written agreement to which both the United States and Iran are parties, at a specified location and/or on a specified date. Qualifying statements must either identify a country or more specifically defined location in which the signing will take place, or the specific calendar date on which the specified signing will happen. Statements limited to a general location or timeframe not meeting this standard will not count. Non-definitive statements, including conditional, exploratory, or tentative statements do not count (e.g. "the signing will take place if Iran agrees" or "we might sign on June 13"). Statements that merely describe a signing without firmly scheduling a location or date will not qualify. Statements that announce a meeting without indicating that the signing of a written agreement will occur will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether an agreement is signed absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds and traditional polling serve different purposes in forecasting. Polls measure public opinion on specific questions at a snapshot in time, while this market aggregates the financial commitments of traders who profit or lose based on actual outcomes. Markets often incorporate information faster than polls update, since traders have direct monetary incentives to price in breaking news and expert analysis. For diplomatic events like deal announcements, markets may reflect insider expectations and geopolitical analysis that broader polling does not capture, making them complementary rather than directly comparable data sources.
This market resolves around Jun 16, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by whether a US announcement of a location or date for a US-Iran deal signing has occurred. Resolution is verified against credible public sources, including official government statements, major news outlets, and diplomatic records. Once the deadline passes, the market settles based on whether the specified announcement event took place during the resolution window. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout automatically.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before the deadline. Official statements from US or Iranian government officials regarding deal negotiations would likely trigger immediate repricing. Diplomatic meetings, UN statements, or media reports on negotiation progress could signal momentum toward an announcement. Geopolitical tensions, sanctions changes, or leadership statements would also influence trader expectations. Economic data affecting US-Iran relations and international mediation efforts by allied nations could provide additional signals. Each development reshapes the probability that an announcement occurs by the resolution date.