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419,363

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US active housing listings in October
kalshi

What will US active housing listings be?

Oct 2, 2026, 10:30 AM EST - Nov 12, 2026, 8:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,539
Volume 24h:
$102
50%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$1,122
10%

Above 1,100,000 listings

 - Kalshi

Above 1,100,000 listings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 12, 2026

Time left: 09d:22h:08m

Will the US active housing listing count (Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in the United States) for October 2026 be above 1,100,000 listings?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 26% 9 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1,100,000 listings

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 3¢
2¢
N/A
$157
0%
11%
$157
1w 2d 22h
Active
kalshi

Above 1,150,000 listings

Trade
94%
Yes 94¢No 49¢
43¢
N/A
$948
0%
0.43%
$531
1w 2d 22h
Active
kalshi

Above 1,175,000 listings

Trade
79%
1%
Yes 79¢No 59¢
38¢
N/A
$407
33%
N/A
$407
1w 2d 22h
Active
kalshi

Above 1,250,000 listings

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$27
0%
125%
$27
1w 2d 22h
Active
kalshi

Above 1,125,000 listings

Trade
N/A
N/A
14¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 22h
Active
kalshi

Above 1,200,000 listings

Trade
N/A
N/A
24¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 22h
Active
kalshi

Above 1,225,000 listings

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 22h
Active
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks the volume of homes available for sale in the U.S. during October 2026. It focuses on whether the number of active housing listings exceeds specific thresholds, offering insight into market conditions and housing supply dynamics at that time.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the first publicly reported value of the U.S. active housing listing count for October 2026, sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED series 'Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in the United States' (series ID ACTLISCOUUS). Each market has a distinct threshold—ranging from 1,100,000 to 1,250,000 listings—and resolves to 'Yes' if the reported count exceeds its respective threshold. No revisions to the initial report will affect the outcome, ensuring that only the originally published figure determines resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for this market tracks the current price, which represents the probability of the number of active US housing listings in October being above or below a certain threshold. You can also view the 24-hour volume, currently at $102, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,539. The dashboard provides a price history chart, allowing you to analyze how traders’ expectations have shifted over time. This provides insight into the collective prediction regarding the state of the US housing listings market.

Currently, the predictions reflected in this market offer a unique perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts predict a continued cooling of the housing market, the aggregate prediction here may suggest a different trajectory. It’s important to note that prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and incentives than typical surveys or expert opinions. Discrepancies between this market and analyst forecasts can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty regarding the future of the US housing listings market, and potentially signal emerging trends.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the number of active US housing listings in October will be above or below a specific level. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively representing the market’s consensus probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments to expectations as new information becomes available, making it a responsive indicator of sentiment surrounding the US housing listings market.

This market resolves around Nov 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official number of active US housing listings in October is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on data released by a recognized source for housing market statistics, ensuring an objective determination of whether the market prediction was accurate. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome of this market.

Several key signals and events could significantly influence this market. Changes in interest rates, unexpectedly strong or weak economic data releases (particularly related to employment and consumer confidence), and shifts in housing supply could all cause traders to reassess their predictions. Furthermore, major policy announcements impacting the housing sector, or unexpected geopolitical events affecting financial markets, could also lead to substantial price movements in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the evolving expectations surrounding the US housing listings market.