TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi
polymarket

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026

Total volume:
$74,676
Volume 24h:
$14,846
52%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$28,323
50%

Above 0.0%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 11, 2026

Time left: 01d:04h:54m

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in August?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.0%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 9¢
9¢
N/A
$33
0%
14%
$6
1d 4h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.1%

Trade
86%
1%
Yes 86¢No 19¢
5¢
N/A
$11,726
29%
2,036%
$9,139
1d 4h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.2%

Trade
33%
1%
Yes 26¢No 87¢
13¢
N/A
$17,028
128%
1,576%
$15,697
1d 4h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.4%

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$1,119
0%
0%
$1,097
1d 4h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.9%

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$229
0%
0%
$113
1d 4h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.6%

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$176
0%
0%
$123
1d 4h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.8%

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$57
0%
0%
$34
1d 4h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.3%

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$1,042
13%
63%
$790
1d 4h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.7%

Trade
3%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$93
0%
16%
$38
1d 4h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 1.0%

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,246
0%
0%
$1,225
1d 4h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.5%

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$141
0%
2%
$61
1d 4h 54m
active
polymarket

49.0–51.9

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

52.0–54.9

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,749
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55.0–57.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,047
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<49.0

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,731
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

58.0–60.9

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,682
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

61.0–63.9

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,187
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

64.0+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group covers two distinct economic indicators for August 2026: the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy. The group includes multiple markets across two platforms (Kalshi and Polymarket) with varying resolution criteria based on these indicators.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The event group contains markets resolving on two completely different economic indicators (CPI core vs Consumer Sentiment) across platformsHero tip: Traders must treat these as separate markets resolving on different data sources. Cross-platform hedging requires understanding both CPI and Consumer Sentiment dynamics.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 10 markets resolving on changes in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy. Threshold ranges from >0.0% to >1.0% increases
  • Polymarket: 9 markets resolving on University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment levels, with brackets from below 49.0 to at least 64.0
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

The market measures the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change in core Consumer Price Index (All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy) for August 2026, using the single-decimal value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each outcome corresponds to a specific threshold, with resolution to Yes if the reported increase exceeds that threshold. In the event of delays caused by federal government shutdown affecting data reliability, the market's expiration date extends to the sooner of the data release or six months after the shutdown ends.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the 2026 consumer sentiment market across multiple prediction venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of different outcomes. It aggregates volume and recent trading activity from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, giving you a snapshot of market sentiment and consensus. The view updates in real time, so you can see how expectations shift as new economic data emerges or as major events unfold.

This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official University of Michigan release for August 2026, compared against the market’s defined ranges or thresholds. Traders should watch for the announcement date and any revisions that might affect the settlement.

Key drivers include major U.S. economic reports such as inflation data, employment figures and GDP estimates, all of which influence consumer expectations. Political developments, federal policy shifts and notable geopolitical events can also shift sentiment. Additionally, unexpected events like natural disasters or sudden market volatility may affect how participants price this market in the months ahead.