TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.1b

24H VOL:

$114,507,511

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,782,936,628

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,734,271,890

505,510

Markets across

37,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,851

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
United Airlines (UAL) Q3 total revenue per available seat mile (cents)?
polymarket

United Airlines (UAL) Q3 total revenue per available seat mile (cents)?

Volume:
$4,400

20¢ to 20.5¢

 - Polymarket

20¢ to 20.5¢ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 6:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20¢ to 20.5¢

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,095
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

19.5¢ to 20¢

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,158
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<19.5¢

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$458
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20.5¢ to 21¢

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$450
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21¢+

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to United Airlines' total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM), reported in cents, for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is United Airlines' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to United Airlines' total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM), reported in cents, for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is United Airlines' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the United Airlines revenue market displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how traders are pricing the likelihood of different revenue per available seat mile (RASM) outcomes for United Airlines in Q3. The current 24-hour volume is $1,848, and the total volume traded on this market is $4,400. The dashboard provides a visual representation of market sentiment and allows you to track changes in predictions over time, offering insights into how the market perceives the airline's performance.

Currently, there are no directly comparable sportsbook odds available for this specific market – United Airlines' Q3 revenue per available seat mile. However, analysts' estimates for United Airlines' Q3 revenue generally align with the most probable outcome reflected in this market. It's important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, while analyst estimates represent individual opinions. Therefore, this market can provide a different perspective than traditional financial forecasts, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating shifts in sentiment more quickly.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of each share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more traders believe a particular RASM value is likely, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, the price will decrease, creating opportunities for traders to profit from accurate predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official United Airlines Q3 total revenue per available seat mile figure is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the reported RASM value released by United Airlines in their Q3 earnings report. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and the corresponding payouts based on their holdings in the market. The market's resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome.

Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Oct 20, 2026. Major announcements from United Airlines regarding their Q3 performance, such as preliminary revenue reports or changes in capacity, would likely cause significant price movement. Broader economic indicators, like fuel prices and overall travel demand, could also impact the market. Unexpected events affecting the airline industry, such as weather disruptions or geopolitical instability, could also shift trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations in this market.