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United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor?
polymarket

United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor?

Volume:
$29,751

83% to 84%

 - Polymarket

83% to 84% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 6:03 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

83% to 84%

View
100%
93%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,719
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

84% to 85%

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

85%+

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,693
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82% to 83%

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,066
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<82%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to United Airlines' consolidated passenger load factor, for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is United Airlines' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to United Airlines' consolidated passenger load factor, for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is United Airlines' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the United Airlines load factor market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how traders are pricing the likelihood of different load factor ranges for United Airlines’ Q3 consolidated passenger numbers. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $4,124, and the total volume traded on this market is $29,751. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how sentiment shifts over time, offering insight into market participants’ expectations.

Unlike traditional sportsbooks that primarily focus on win/loss scenarios, this market allows for predictions on a continuous range of outcomes – the precise passenger load factor. While direct comparisons to sportsbook odds are not applicable given the different nature of the event, it’s useful to consider analyst expectations for United Airlines’ Q3 performance. Current industry forecasts suggest a load factor within a similar range to the most probable outcomes reflected in this market, indicating a degree of alignment between expert opinion and the wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official Q3 consolidated passenger load factor reported by United Airlines in their earnings release. The reported figure will be compared against the defined outcome ranges within this market to determine the winning share(s). Traders will be able to claim their winnings once the resolution is finalized on Polymarket.

Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before resolution. Any significant news regarding United Airlines’ flight schedules, fuel prices, or overall travel demand could shift expectations. Major economic indicators, such as changes in consumer confidence or GDP growth, could also impact travel patterns and, consequently, the load factor. Furthermore, unexpected events like weather disruptions or geopolitical instability could affect flight operations and influence how traders assess the likelihood of different outcomes in this market.