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United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile (cents)?
polymarket

United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile (cents)?

Volume:
$23,999

19.5¢+

 - Polymarket

19.5¢+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 15, 2026

Closed: Jul 15, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

19.5¢+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,717
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

19¢-19.5¢

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18¢-18.5¢

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,099
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18.5¢-19¢

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,941
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<18¢

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,688
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to United Airlines' total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM), reported in cents, for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is United Airlines' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to United Airlines' total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM), reported in cents, for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is United Airlines' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the UAL Q2 revenue per seat mile market dashboard displays real-time odds on whether United Airlines' second-quarter revenue per available seat mile will fall below 18 cents. The interface shows current market probability, historical price movements, and trading volume metrics. Traders use this data to monitor consensus expectations around United's unit revenue performance during Q2. The dashboard reflects collective market sentiment as participants buy and sell shares tied to the outcome, with total volume of $23,999 and 24-hour activity of $2,871 providing liquidity context for this market.

Prediction market odds on this market offer a real-time, crowd-sourced alternative to traditional analyst consensus. While equity research teams publish quarterly revenue projections based on historical trends and industry conditions, prediction markets aggregate the views of traders with direct financial incentives to forecast accurately. Comparing the current market probability to published analyst estimates for United's Q2 unit revenue can reveal whether traders expect performance above or below Wall Street consensus. This market often incorporates forward-looking signals—fuel costs, capacity decisions, and booking trends—faster than formal analyst revisions, making it a useful cross-check against traditional forecasting.

This market resolves around Jul 15, 2026, once United Airlines reports its official Q2 financial results. The outcome is determined by the company's verified revenue per available seat mile figure for the second quarter, confirmed against credible public sources including SEC filings and investor presentations. Resolution hinges on whether that metric falls below 18 cents or meets or exceeds that threshold. Traders should monitor United's earnings announcement and any guidance revisions leading up to the settlement date to assess shifting probabilities.

Several catalysts could shift odds in this market before resolution. Fuel price movements directly impact airline unit economics and revenue per seat mile. Capacity decisions—whether United adds or reduces flights—affect revenue distribution across available seats. Booking trends and load factors, especially during peak summer travel, signal demand strength. Macroeconomic data on consumer spending and business travel also influence expectations. Additionally, competitor earnings reports and industry commentary can reset baseline assumptions about pricing power and yield. Any management guidance updates or forward commentary from United's leadership team will likely trigger repricing as traders reassess the likelihood of the sub-18¢ outcome.