TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.3b

24H VOL:

$160,757,820

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,796,460,506

516,586

Markets across

38,144

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,845

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?
kalshi

Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?

Dec 15, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$43,355
Volume 24h:
$2,074N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$36,405
0.35%

Exactly 4.2%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 4.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 13d:17h:07m

Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?

37%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 38¢ buys you 263 shares | Odds: 37% Total Payout: $263 | Net Profit: $163 Multiplier: 2.63x | ROI: 163% APY not meaningful 13 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 4.2%

Trade
37%
2%
Yes 38¢No 66¢
4¢
N/A
$2,657
6%
22%
$1,606
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.1%

Trade
28%
2%
Yes 28¢No 74¢
2¢
N/A
$3,135
3%
24%
$2,425
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.3%

Trade
25%
Yes 25¢No 76¢
1¢
N/A
$2,513
7%
18%
$1,910
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.9%

Trade
9%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$800
0%
0%
$300
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.0%

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$1,657
0%
1%
$897
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.6%

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$19
0%
0%
$19
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.5%

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$1,657
0%
0.31%
$826
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.4%

Trade
3%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$1,092
0%
76%
$472
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.8%

Trade
3%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$133
0%
0%
$133
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.7%

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$4,251
0%
63%
$3,490
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 5.3%

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$4,011
0%
120%
$4,011
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 5.2%

Trade
1%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$3,479
0%
68%
$3,479
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 5.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$3,477
0%
90%
$3,477
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 5.1%

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$3,320
0%
78%
$3,320
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.3%

Trade
1%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$500
0%
0%
$200
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.8%

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$3,717
0%
80%
$3,377
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.6%

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$3,542
0%
87%
$3,079
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 4.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$3,399
0%
94%
$3,387
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 5.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 5.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.7%

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 17h
active
kalshi

Exactly 3.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 17h
active
Total markets: 23

Intro

This market tracks whether the U.S. unemployment rate will reach exactly 5.4% in October 2026. On Kalshi, the probability of the unemployment rate hitting that specific level stands at 50.0%, while the probability of it landing at a different rate is also 50.0%. Resolution will be determined by official unemployment data released for October 2026. Watch the monthly jobs report scheduled for November 2026 to see whether the unemployment rate matches the 5.4% threshold.

Kalshi

This event determines which specific unemployment rate level the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report for October 2026, with possible outcomes ranging from exactly 3.3% to exactly 5.5%. Each tenth of a percentage point represents a distinct resolution outcome. Only one outcome can occur, as the reported unemployment rate will settle at a single value; participants are betting on the precise rate rather than whether it exceeds or falls below a threshold.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the October 2026 unemployment rate tracks the current implied probability of various outcomes, reflecting traders’ collective predictions. You’ll see the price associated with each potential unemployment rate, along with the total volume traded – currently $43,355 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $417. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and how it’s evolving as new economic data becomes available. The dashboard also displays the outcome currently favored by traders, which is at 37.0%.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the October 2026 unemployment rate. While analysts often provide a single point estimate or range, this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes. This means it captures not only the most likely scenario but also the uncertainty surrounding it. It’s important to note that analysts’ forecasts can be influenced by biases or specific methodologies, while this market reflects the aggregated wisdom of a diverse group of traders. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive view.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different unemployment rate outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, these prices fluctuate, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, as indicated by the highest probability, is at 37.0%, and the overall volume traded demonstrates the level of interest in this particular economic indicator.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official unemployment rate for October 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the primary source for this data, and the market will settle based on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate released by the BLS for that month. Traders will be able to see the final settlement price and the resulting payouts based on their positions in this market. It’s a forward-looking assessment of a key economic indicator.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major economic reports released in the intervening months, such as monthly jobs reports, GDP growth figures, and inflation data, will all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical events impacting global economic growth, and even significant changes in labor force participation rates could also cause substantial price movements. Any news that alters expectations about the overall health of the U.S. economy is likely to be reflected in the trading activity of this market.