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Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?
kalshi

Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?

Volume:
$35,568

Exactly 4.2%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 4.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 4.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$919
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 4.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,311
N/A
N/A
$22,453
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,440
N/A
N/A
$2,722
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,552
N/A
N/A
$1,969
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$997
N/A
N/A
$641
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$478
N/A
N/A
$145
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$243
N/A
N/A
$212
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$216
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$214
N/A
N/A
$214
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$88
N/A
N/A
$72
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
$22
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
$21
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.5%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.4%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.3%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.2%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.1%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.0%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.9%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.9%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.8%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.4%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 23

Intro

This market tracks whether the U.S. unemployment rate will reach exactly 5.5% in June 2026. On Kalshi, the probability of the unemployment rate hitting precisely 5.5% stands at 50.0%, with the alternative outcome also at 50.0%. Resolution will be determined by official unemployment data released for June 2026. Given current labor market expectations project the rate to fall between 3.3% and 5.5% during that period, the June 2026 employment report will be the critical data point determining this market's outcome.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the official U.S. unemployment rate reported for June 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific unemployment rate value ranging from 3.3% to 5.5% in 0.1% increments. The market resolves to Yes for whichever outcome matches the actual reported unemployment rate for that month. If the actual rate falls outside the specified range or does not match any exact outcome value, the market may resolve to No or require alternative resolution procedures.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Unemployment rate in Jun 2026 event on Kalshi. It displays the current probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and liquidity metrics including total group volume of $35,568 and 24-hour volume of $16,382. The tracker updates continuously as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting the market's collective forecast for U.S. unemployment conditions in June 2026. This single-venue view helps you monitor sentiment and positioning as the resolution date approaches.

The Unemployment rate in Jun 2026 market resolves on Jul 2, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official unemployment rate data released for June 2026, typically published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in early July. The specific outcome depends on whether the actual rate falls within predefined brackets or thresholds set by the market contract. Traders should monitor BLS announcements and economic calendars as the resolution date approaches to track the data release schedule and any revisions to prior months' figures.

Key drivers of unemployment rate expectations include Federal Reserve policy decisions and interest rate changes, which influence hiring and layoff cycles. Major economic shocks—recession signals, geopolitical events, or sector-specific disruptions—can rapidly shift labor market forecasts. Monthly jobs reports and jobless claims data released between now and June 2026 will provide real-time labor market momentum. Wage growth, inflation trends, and consumer spending patterns also influence employer hiring decisions. Corporate earnings guidance and forward hiring announcements from major employers can signal tightening or loosening labor demand, moving market odds materially.