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Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?
kalshi

Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?

Volume:
$55,388

Exactly 4.1%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 4.1% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 4.1%

View
100%
67%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,506
N/A
N/A
$4,551
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 4.3%

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,752
N/A
N/A
$11,314
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.0%

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,074
N/A
N/A
$7,027
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.2%

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,776
N/A
N/A
$5,048
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,880
N/A
N/A
$2,020
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.9%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,740
N/A
N/A
$2,740
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,481
N/A
N/A
$1,778
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,738
N/A
N/A
$1,201
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$818
N/A
N/A
$361
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$323
N/A
N/A
$310
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.5%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.4%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.3%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.2%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.1%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 5.0%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.8%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.7%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.6%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.5%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.4%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 23

Intro

This market tracks whether the U.S. unemployment rate will reach exactly 5.4% in August 2026. On Kalshi, the outcome that unemployment hits precisely 5.4% stands at 50.0%, while the alternative outcome also sits at 50.0%. Resolution will be determined by official unemployment data released for August 2026. Watch the monthly jobs report scheduled for early September 2026, which will provide the definitive unemployment figure needed to settle this contract.

Kalshi

If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.3% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.4% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.5% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.6% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.7% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.8% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.9% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.0% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.1% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.2% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.3% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.4% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.5% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.6% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.7% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.8% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.9% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 5.0% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 5.1% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 5.2% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 5.3% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 5.4% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Unemployment rate is exactly 5.5% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The Unemployment rate in Aug 2026 market resolves on Sep 4, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official unemployment rate figure released for August 2026, typically published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the employment situation report. The specific outcome bands or thresholds are defined by the market's terms at launch. Traders should review the exact resolution criteria and data source specified in the market rules to understand which statistical release and methodology will settle the contract.

Key drivers of the Unemployment rate in Aug 2026 market include monthly jobs reports, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and macroeconomic shocks. Stronger-than-expected payroll growth or wage data typically tightens labor markets and lowers unemployment expectations, moving odds downward. Conversely, recession signals, financial stress, or geopolitical disruptions can spike unemployment forecasts. Fed rate cuts or hikes influence hiring incentives and economic growth. Earnings seasons, corporate guidance on headcount, and sector-specific layoffs also move sentiment. Traders monitor real-time labor force participation, initial jobless claims, and leading economic indicators as proxies for August conditions.