TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Ulta Credit Card Spend in August
kalshi

Ulta Credit Card Spend in August

Volume:
$5,287

Above 95

 - Kalshi

Above 95 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 12:42 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 95

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,572
N/A
N/A
$447
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 92.5

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,060
N/A
N/A
$660
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 98

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$417
N/A
N/A
$306
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 101

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$228
N/A
N/A
$225
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 103.5

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks projected credit card spending at Ulta for August 2026, using an index that compares monthly spending to the same month in the previous year. The index reflects growth or decline relative to the prior year's figures, with values above 100 indicating an increase. Outcomes depend on whether the reported index meets specific thresholds.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend index for August 2026, which measures year-over-year changes in U.S. credit and debit card transactions at Ulta. The index is calculated using Carbon Arc’s aggregated transaction panel, comparing August 2026 spending to August of the prior year. A value of 100 indicates equal spending compared to the same month last year, with numbers above 100 showing growth and below 100 showing decline. Each market has a distinct threshold (e.g., above 92.5, above 95, etc.), and all resolve based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for August 2026. Any corrections or revisions to the data after the initial report will not affect the settlement. The markets are independent, with each evaluating whether the reported index exceeds its specific threshold. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with Ulta or Carbon Arc, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Ulta credit card spend market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $33. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different spending outcomes for Ulta Beauty's credit card users in August, giving you a live view of market sentiment and activity without needing to check multiple sources.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate a wide range of financial metrics and historical trends, traders on Kalshi adjust prices based on recent data, sentiment, and upcoming events — which can lead to notable differences in implied probabilities versus consensus estimates.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released data from Ulta Beauty or a reputable financial news source, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process for all participants on Kalshi.

Key signals that could shift this market include preliminary sales reports, consumer spending surveys, economic indicators affecting discretionary spending, and any major promotional events or changes in consumer behavior leading up to August. Each of these can cause traders on Kalshi to reassess probabilities, potentially creating noticeable price movements as the resolution date approaches.