TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 2, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks which candidate will win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election in South Korea. Kim Sang-wook is the leading contender at 72.5% on Polymarket, while Kim Doo-kyum holds 24.5%. The market will resolve based on the official results reported by South Korea's National Election Commission. Watch the June 3, 2026 election day for the outcome that will settle this contract.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling due to different incentive structures. Markets reward accurate forecasts with real money, encouraging traders to incorporate private information and forward-looking analysis. Polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment but may lag shifts in campaign momentum or candidate viability. For the Ulsan mayoral race, comparing market-implied probabilities to recent survey data reveals whether traders are pricing in factors polls have not yet reflected, such as campaign developments, endorsements, or demographic shifts. This comparison helps identify whether markets are leading or lagging public opinion.
The Ulsan Mayoral Election Winner market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official results of the Ulsan mayoral election held on that date. The market will settle based on which candidate receives the most votes and is declared the winner by South Korean electoral authorities. Traders holding shares in the winning candidate receive the full payout, while incorrect predictions result in a loss. The resolution process typically occurs shortly after official results are announced and verified by relevant election commissions.
Several catalysts could shift odds for the Ulsan mayoral race. Campaign announcements, candidate debates, and endorsements from prominent political figures often trigger repricing as traders reassess viability. Scandals or controversies involving candidates can cause sharp probability swings. Local economic conditions, infrastructure projects, or policy disputes may influence voter sentiment and market expectations. Media coverage and polling releases provide new data that traders incorporate into prices. Voter turnout expectations, demographic shifts, and coalition dynamics between parties also drive trading activity. As the election date approaches, these signals accumulate, creating opportunities for traders to adjust positions based on evolving race conditions.