TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Politics
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by...?
polymarket

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by...?

Volume:
$3,085,899

March 31

 - Polymarket

March 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 5, 2026

Closed: Mar 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

March 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,027,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

April 15

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

January 17

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,194
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

January 24

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,145
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

January 31

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,036
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

February 28

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,375
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

February 14

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,976
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

On December 10, 2025, Ukraine hit and disabled "Dashan," a tanker involved in trading Russian oil, as it sailed through Ukraine's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea to the Russian port of Novorossiysk. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-disables-shadow-fleet-vessel-with-sea-drones-black-sea-2025-12-10/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any tanker in the Black Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a tanker anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. Strikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties, such as Turkey, including the December 2 incident involving the tanker "Midvolga-2,” will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/2/russian-tanker-struck-off-turkiye-as-ukraine-targets-shadow-fleet). Ship seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the tanker will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.