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$154.4b

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$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

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4,340

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5

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UK retail sales in September
kalshi

What will UK retail sales be in September?

Volume:
$948

Above -1.0%

 - Kalshi

Above -1.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 1:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above -1.0%

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$863
N/A
N/A
$246
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.0%

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$54
N/A
N/A
$54
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.5%

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.0%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

Above -1.5%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.5%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks the performance of UK retail sales for a specific month, reflecting consumer spending trends and economic health. Retail sales growth or decline can indicate broader economic conditions, such as consumer confidence and discretionary spending power. The outcome depends on how the actual sales figure compares to predefined thresholds.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the United Kingdom's retail sales month-over-month (MoM) change for September 2026. Multiple markets exist with escalating percentage thresholds, each resolving to 'Yes' if the reported sales figure exceeds its specific threshold. Thresholds range from above -1.5% to above 2.0%, meaning any positive or sufficiently negative sales growth will satisfy at least one market. The final market outcome is determined solely by the highest threshold met or exceeded by the official sales data.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the UK retail sales market tracks the current odds of whether September 2026 retail sales will be above -1.5% month-over-month. You can view the price history, which shows how traders are valuing different outcomes over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $481, and the total volume traded to date, which is $948. This provides insight into how much activity this particular market is seeing and how confidence in different outcomes is shifting.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for the UK retail sales market. While traditional economic forecasts are readily available, they often represent a single point estimate or a range of possibilities. This market allows traders to express a probability distribution over potential outcomes. It will be interesting to see if the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi aligns with, diverges from, or offers a more nuanced perspective than standard analyst predictions regarding the health of the UK retail sector.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official UK retail sales figures for September 2026 are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the month-over-month percentage change in retail sales volume. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts adjusted based on whether the actual change exceeds the threshold defined by their contracts. The data source used for resolution will be a widely recognized and trusted source of economic statistics.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Major economic reports related to UK consumer spending, inflation data, and employment figures will all be closely watched. Unexpected political events, such as changes in government policy or Brexit-related developments, could also impact consumer confidence and retail sales. Furthermore, global economic conditions and events—like shifts in global supply chains or major international crises—could indirectly affect the UK retail sales market and, consequently, trading activity on Kalshi.