TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UK retail sales in July
kalshi

What will UK retail sales be in July?

Volume:
$3,158

Above -1.0%

 - Kalshi

Above -1.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 21, 2026

Closed: Aug 21, 1:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above -1.0%

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$932
N/A
N/A
$778
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -1.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$140
N/A
N/A
$140
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,529
N/A
N/A
$606
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$348
N/A
N/A
$321
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.5%

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.0%

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.0%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks the performance of UK retail sales for a specific month, focusing on how consumer spending trends reflect broader economic health. Retail sales growth or decline can indicate shifts in consumer confidence, economic stability, and overall market conditions. Monitoring these figures helps gauge the effectiveness of economic policies and consumer behavior patterns.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the United Kingdom's retail sales month-over-month (MoM) percentage change for July 2026. Multiple thresholds define different levels of performance, each corresponding to a separate market outcome. If the reported retail sales figure exceeds any of the specified thresholds—from -1.5% up to 2.5%—the respective market for that threshold resolves to 'Yes.' Thresholds are sequential and non-overlapping, meaning a single reported value can trigger multiple 'Yes' resolutions if it surpasses more than one threshold. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of varying degrees of retail sales performance, from modest declines to robust growth, providing a granular view of potential economic outcomes for the specified period.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard displays the current odds and price history for the UK July retail sales market, along with 24-hour volume of $618. It shows how traders on Kalshi are positioning around this economic indicator, reflecting expectations for consumer spending trends in the United Kingdom during July. The page updates in real time to capture shifting market sentiment as new data or analysis emerges, giving users a live snapshot of betting activity and price movements within this market.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate a wide range of economic data and models, traders on Kalshi react quickly to new information, which can lead to divergence or alignment depending on recent economic releases and sentiment.

This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on authoritative economic data releases, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process aligned with public records.

Key signals that could shift this market include upcoming economic announcements, changes in consumer confidence, shifts in inflation data, and any major policy updates from the Bank of England. Traders on Kalshi will also watch for preliminary retail data snapshots and media coverage that might hint at broader consumer behavior trends leading up to the final report.