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UK retail sales in August
kalshi

What will UK retail sales growth be in August?

Volume:
$1,092

Above -1.5%

 - Kalshi

Above -1.5% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 18, 2026

Closed: Sep 18, 1:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above -1.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$189
N/A
N/A
$189
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$38
N/A
N/A
$28
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
$400
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$192
N/A
N/A
$189
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.0%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$161
N/A
N/A
$155
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$103
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
No
kalshi

Above -1.0%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks the performance of UK retail sales for August 2026, focusing on the month-over-month growth rate. It evaluates whether consumer spending in the UK shows improvement or decline compared to the previous month. The outcome reflects broader economic health indicators such as consumer confidence and economic stability.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for UK retail sales month-over-month (MoM) growth in August 2026, with each threshold representing a progressively higher performance level. If the reported retail sales figure exceeds any of the specified negative or positive percentage thresholds—from -1.5% up to 2.0%—the event resolves positively. The structure creates a tiered resolution framework where higher thresholds imply stronger economic performance, allowing participants to assess varying degrees of retail sales outcomes within the same reporting period.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the UK August retail sales market tracks the real-time odds and price history of this event, along with its 24-hour volume of $922. It shows how traders on Kalshi are positioning themselves ahead of the official data release, offering a live snapshot of market expectations and liquidity.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market’s odds often reflect a more immediate, sentiment-driven view of expectations for UK retail sales. While analysts may incorporate a wider economic context, traders on Kalshi react quickly to news, data snippets, and shifts in consumer confidence, which can make the market odds appear more bullish or bearish in the short term.

This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official UK retail sales data for August is verified against credible public sources. The final figure, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, will settle the contract based on the precise statistical release from the relevant government agency.

Key signals that could shift this market include early retail sector surveys, high-impact macroeconomic data such as consumer confidence or inflation figures, and any major policy announcements from the Bank of England or the UK government. Unexpected weather events or supply chain updates could also influence trader sentiment and move odds on Kalshi before settlement.