TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
JOLTS Job Openings: August 2026
kalshi
polymarket

What will JOLTS Job Openings be in August 2026?

Total volume:
$859
Volume 24h:
$59
6%
Liquidity:
$1,436
81%
Open interest:
$527N/A

7.6M+

 - Polymarket

7.6M+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 6, 2026

Time left: 18d:22h:55m

Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.6M in August?

17%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 17¢ buys you 588 shares | Odds: 17% Total Payout: $588 | Net Profit: $488 Multiplier: 5.88x | ROI: 488% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 18 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

7.6M+

Trade
17%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
$736
$145
0%
1%
N/A
2w 4d 22h
active
polymarket

7.3M to 7.4M

Trade
13%
Yes 14¢No 88¢
2¢
$258
$82
42%
0%
N/A
2w 4d 22h
active
polymarket

7.4M to 7.5M

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
$81
$20
0%
0%
N/A
2w 4d 22h
active
polymarket

7.1M to 7.2M

Trade
12%
3%
Yes 16¢No 92¢
8¢
$66
$38
0%
5%
N/A
2w 4d 22h
active
polymarket

7.2M to 7.3M

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 15¢No 93¢
8¢
$40
$79
0%
108%
N/A
2w 4d 22h
active
polymarket

<7.0M

Trade
9%
2%
Yes 12¢No 94¢
6¢
$79
$160
28%
545%
N/A
2w 4d 22h
active
polymarket

7.0M to 7.1M

Trade
9%
Yes 12.8¢No 95.1¢
7.9¢
$36
$70
0%
245%
N/A
2w 4d 22h
active
polymarket

7.5M to 7.6M

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 9¢No 94¢
3¢
$140
$265
0%
49%
N/A
2w 4d 22h
active
kalshi

Above 7.10M

Trade
N/A
N/A
73¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 7.15M

Trade
N/A
N/A
74¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 7.20M

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 7.25M

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 7.30M

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 7.35M

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 7.40M

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 6h
active
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group forecasts the number of job openings in the United States as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August 2026. The markets aim to predict whether the seasonally adjusted total number of job openings will fall above or within specific thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets are based on exceeding thresholds, while Polymarket markets focus on range containment. This creates a structural difference in how the markets resolve.Hero tip: Consider the implications of range containment versus threshold crossing when trading these markets. A value slightly above a Kalshi threshold might not be sufficient to win a corresponding Polymarket range market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers markets on whether job openings will be below 7.0M, between specific ranges (e.g., 7.0M-7.1M), or at least 7.6M. Resolution is based on the BLS JOLTS report, and if a value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi offers a series of binary markets that resolve 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted number of job openings exceeds a specified threshold (e.g., 7.10M, 7.15M, 7.20M, etc.).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the seasonally adjusted total number of job openings in the United States in August 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This market will resolve to the bracket containing the seasonally adjusted total number of job openings for the total nonfarm sector in August 2026, as reported in the monthly JOLTS report published by the BLS. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/jlt/), currently scheduled to be released on September 29, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly JOLTS report, which reports job openings in thousands of openings. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Rounding employed in the headline figure will not impact settlement, where a more precise figure is reported. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next JOLTS report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

All markets in this event depend on the seasonally adjusted total nonfarm job openings figure for August 2026, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on September 29, 2026. Job openings are calculated based on the last business day of August and reported in thousands, with values converted to millions for market resolution. Each market has a distinct threshold (ranging from 7.10M to 7.40M), and resolves to 'Yes' if the reported figure exceeds its specific threshold. The underlying data source and calculation method remain consistent across all markets, ensuring uniform evaluation of the labor market's vacancy levels against varying benchmarks.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often provide a valuable alternative to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and subjective judgment, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and perspectives. The current price action suggests a different outlook than some traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating real-time data and anticipating shifts in economic conditions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information, making this market a useful tool for comparison and potentially identifying undervalued or overvalued expectations.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi for the JOLTS job openings market can arise from several factors. Different trader bases on each platform may have varying beliefs about the future economic outlook and the likely impact on job openings. Trading activity and volume levels also differ between Polymarket and Kalshi, influencing price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee schedules on each platform can create slight price variations. These differences reflect the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the diverse perspectives of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official JOLTS report for August 2026 is released and the data is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the seasonally adjusted number of total nonfarm job openings reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Traders should monitor the official release date and ensure they understand the data source used for verification to assess the final outcome of this market.

Several economic indicators and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in unemployment claims, nonfarm payrolls, or GDP growth could signal shifts in the labor market and influence trader sentiment. Federal Reserve policy announcements regarding interest rates and quantitative easing could also have a substantial effect. Geopolitical events, such as trade wars or global recessions, could disrupt economic activity and impact job openings. Monitoring these factors and their potential impact on the labor market will be crucial for traders seeking to profit from this market.