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UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?
kalshi
polymarket

UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?

Volume:
$37,084

0.4–0.5%

 - Polymarket

0.4–0.5% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 13, 2026

Closed: Aug 13, 7:35 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.4–0.5%

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,001
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$624
N/A
N/A
$276
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$325
N/A
N/A
$305
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$81
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
$64
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$33
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.2–0.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,933
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.6–0.7%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,389
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.8–0.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,121
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Negative

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,943
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.0–0.1%

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.0%+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$610
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$194
N/A
N/A
$180
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
$38
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
$36
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$17
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Description

This event group tracks UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Polymarket offers granular range-based markets (e.g., 0.2–0.3%, negative, at least 1.0%), while Kalshi's source data appears corrupted—it references Italy GDP instead of UK GDP across 15 conditions, making it logically incoherent and unresolvable.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution conditions reference Italy GDP instead of UK GDP, creating a fundamental data integrity failure. The market is unresolvable as stated and contradicts the event group's declared subject matter.Hero tip: Avoid Kalshi positions in this group pending platform correction. Polymarket's markets are resolvable and tied to official ONS data. If you hold Kalshi contracts, request clarification or consider exit strategies.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on UK real GDP growth (QoQ) from ONS "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release (August 12, 2026). Eight granular markets: ranges (0.2–0.3%, 0.4–0.5%, 0.6–0.7%, 0.8–0.9%), negative, 0–0.1%, and at least 1.0%. Precision: one decimal place. Key Quote: 'data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market.'
  • Kalshi: All 15 conditions reference 'Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026' with thresholds ranging from -0.4 to 1.0, each resolving to Yes. This contradicts the event group title ('UK GDP growth') and creates logical incoherence. Key Quote: 'If Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

Italy's quarter-over-quarter GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 is assessed against 15 threshold levels ranging from -0.4% to 1.0%, each representing a separate outcome. Each threshold resolves to Yes if the official quarter-over-quarter growth rate exceeds that specific level. The measurement uses advance estimates of GDP growth as reported by Italian statistical authorities, comparing Q2 2026 economic output to Q1 2026 output on an annualized basis.

Frequently asked questions

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Polymarket and Kalshi stem from distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and outcome specifications. Polymarket focuses on a narrower growth band (0.8–0.9%), attracting traders with precise growth expectations, while Kalshi frames outcomes around threshold levels, appealing to different risk profiles. Regulatory constraints, fee structures, and platform-specific order flow also fragment pricing. Additionally, each venue may attract traders with different information sets or time horizons, creating temporary arbitrage opportunities. Cross-platform monitoring reveals which outcome definition the broader market favors and whether consensus is consolidating or fragmenting as Q2 2026 approaches.

Key catalysts for UK Q2 2026 GDP odds include Bank of England monetary policy decisions, inflation data, labour market reports, and consumer spending indicators. Brexit-related trade friction, energy prices, and global growth shocks could reshape growth expectations. Advance estimates and flash PMI readings in early summer 2026 will provide early signals of quarterly momentum. Fiscal announcements or business investment trends may also shift trader positioning. Real-time economic surprises—unemployment spikes, retail sales misses, or manufacturing weakness—typically trigger sharp repricing. Political developments and external demand from eurozone or US economies represent additional tail risks that could materially alter consensus growth forecasts before the final ONS release.