TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Colin Allred, 5-10%
- Kalshi
Colin Allred, 5-10% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 13, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 13, 8:32 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the margin of victory in the Texas 33rd District Democratic primary runoff election, specifically whether the winning candidate will secure victory by a margin between 5% and 10%. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 99.0%, based on resolution criteria from official election results. The market will settle following the Democratic primary runoff election scheduled for May 26, 2027.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage (or raw votes or electoral votes, depending on margin type) received by the candidate minus the votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind them if they win, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if they lose. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied to the calculated margin. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural candidate are summed. Positive margins indicate victory, negative margins indicate loss, and a margin of 0 indicates a tie for first place. For uncontested races where the candidate is the only option, the margin is 100 percentage points or the total votes cast. The market covers Julie Johnson margins ranging from 0-5% to 10%+, and Colin Allred margins ranging from 0-5% to 25%+.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because markets incorporate trader expectations, fundraising data, turnout models, and real-time campaign momentum that polls may lag. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate continuous information flow and financial incentives for accuracy. For the TX-33 runoff, market participants may price in ground-game strength, demographic shifts, or late-breaking endorsements that haven't yet appeared in published surveys. Comparing the two reveals whether traders expect polling to shift or whether current polls already reflect likely outcomes.
The TX-33 Democratic primary runoff margin market resolves on May 26, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official certified margin of victory announced by Texas election authorities following the runoff election. The margin is calculated as the percentage-point difference between the top two finishers in the Democratic primary runoff. Once official results are published and certified, the outcome corresponding to the actual margin band is confirmed, and contracts settle accordingly. Traders should monitor official election commission announcements and certified vote totals to understand the final result.
