TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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TX-23 House Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the TX-23 House election?

Total volume:
$321,234
Volume 24h:
$44,717
570%
Liquidity:
$351,437
25%
Open interest:
$173,613
19%

Republican party

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Will Republican win the House race for TX-23?

71%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 71¢ buys you 141 shares | Odds: 71% Total Payout: $141 | Net Profit: $41 Multiplier: 1.41x | ROI: 41% | APY: 368% 81 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
71%
3%
Yes 71¢No 30¢
1¢
N/A
$178,983
16%
46%
$142,015
2mo 3w
active
predict

Republican Party

Trade
70%
Yes 70.9¢No 31¢
1.9¢
$63,110
$7,788
8,119%
8,119%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Republican Party

Trade
69%
4%
Yes 70¢No 32¢
2¢
$103,261
$51,617
10%
19%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
70.5%
Yes 70.6¢No 31¢
Avg: 1.6¢Max: 2¢
predict

Democratic Party

Trade
31%
5%
Yes 32.7¢No 71¢
3.7¢
$59,070
$205
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Democratic Party

Trade
31%
Yes 32¢No 71¢
3¢
$125,996
$38,313
11%
17%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
28%
Yes 30¢No 71¢
1¢
N/A
$44,328
9%
16%
$31,598
2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
29.2%
Yes 31.6¢No 71¢
Avg: 2.6¢Max: 3.7¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 election for the U.S. House of Representatives in Texas’s 23rd congressional district, specifically whether the Republican or Democratic Party will win the seat. Currently, the consensus probability of a Republican win is 69.0%, while the Democratic Party is at 35.3%, aggregating views from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict. The resolution source for this market is the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). Keep an eye on the official election results following the election on January 4, 2027, to see which party secures the TX-23 congressional district seat.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms align on resolving to the winning party of the TX-23 congressional district election, with the FEC as the tiebreaker.Primary resolution logic: Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate.
  • Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or stated intent to caucus.
  • The FEC is the final authority in cases of ambiguity.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Independent Candidate: If a candidate runs as an independent without a clear party affiliation, they will be assigned the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus.
  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the FEC's official results will determine the winner and thus the resolution.
Timing: Resolution will occur after all 2026 House elections are conclusively called and the official results are reported by the Federal Election Commission, likely in November/December 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the party affiliation of the House member sworn in for TX-23 for the term beginning in 2027. The market resolves to Yes for the Democratic Party outcome if a Democrat is sworn in, or to Yes for the Republican Party outcome if a Republican is sworn in. Markets are eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of different outcomes in the TX-23 House election. It aggregates trading volume of over $320,593 with $41,170 traded in the last 24 hours, providing a consensus view of expectations. Currently, Polymarket shows a 69.0% probability for Will Republican win the House race for TX-23?, while Kalshi also indicates Will Republican win the House race for TX-23? is favored at 71.0%. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of how the prediction market is interpreting available information about the election.

Prediction market odds, like those reflected in this market, often serve as a distinct signal compared to traditional polling data. While polls capture a snapshot of stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to differences, as market prices incorporate not only predicted outcomes but also perceptions of information quality and potential for unexpected events. Discrepancies between market probabilities and polls can sometimes indicate that traders believe polls are inaccurate or that unquantified factors will influence the election’s result.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to differing interpretations of the same information. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform influences price discovery; a larger volume generally leads to a more efficient and accurate price. Differences in the fees charged by each platform can also affect trading behavior and, consequently, prices. Finally, differing risk appetites among traders on each platform can contribute to price discrepancies.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities for the TX-23 House election. The winning candidate, as declared by these authorities, will determine the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results and confirmation of the election winner.

Several events could significantly shift the probabilities within this market. Major news developments related to the candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected scandals, would likely have an impact. Changes in national political trends, economic indicators, or key endorsements could also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, the release of new polling data, particularly if it deviates significantly from current expectations, could cause price adjustments. Finally, any unforeseen events that impact voter turnout or campaign dynamics could move this market before Jan 4, 2027.