TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

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24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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62%

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TX-15 House Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the TX-15 House election?

Total volume:
$2,443,996
Volume 24h:
$14,316
10%
Liquidity:
$174,448
7%
Open interest:
$1,739,754
0.15%

Democratic party

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Will Democratic win the House race for TX-15?

83%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 83¢ buys you 120 shares | Odds: 83% Total Payout: $120 | Net Profit: $20 Multiplier: 1.20x | ROI: 20% | APY: 132% 81 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
83%
1%
Yes 83¢No 18¢
1¢
N/A
$516,179
0.77%
7%
$333,895
2mo 3w
active
polymarket

Democratic Party

Trade
81%
1%
Yes 82¢No 20¢
2¢
$80,575
$26,067
2%
33%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
82.9%
Yes 82.5¢No 19¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

Republican Party

Trade
19%
Yes 19¢No 82¢
1¢
$93,873
$37,087
11%
36%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
18%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
N/A
$1,864,663
0.33%
1%
$1,405,860
2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
18%
Yes 18.5¢No 82.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks which party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat in Texas’s 15th congressional district following the 2026 election. Currently, the consensus probability favors a Democratic win at 82.0%, while the Republican Party is at 18.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve according to official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). Keep an eye on the election results following the voting period, with a resolution date estimate of January 4, 2027, to see which party secures the TX-15 seat.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms agree that resolution hinges on the party affiliation of the winning candidate in the TX-15 House election, with the FEC serving as the tiebreaker.Primary resolution logic: Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate in the TX-15 congressional district.
  • Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or declared intent to caucus.
  • The FEC provides the official source for resolving any ambiguity.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Candidate Affiliation Dispute: If a candidate's party affiliation is contested, the market will resolve based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called.
  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the FEC's official result will determine the winner and thus the market resolution.
Timing: The market will resolve once the winner of the TX-15 House seat is officially declared by the FEC, or by a consensus of credible reporting, following the November 3, 2026, midterm elections.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the House member sworn in for TX-15 for the term beginning in 2027. Resolution occurs when the elected representative takes office, with outcomes determined by whether that member belongs to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes in the TX-15 House election. It aggregates trading volume of over $2,443,996 with $5,603 traded in the last 24 hours, providing a consensus view of predictions. Currently, Polymarket shows a 81.0% chance for Will Democratic win the House race for TX-15?, while Kalshi also indicates Will Democratic win the House race for TX-15? as the frontrunner with a 83.0% probability. This allows for a comprehensive look at where the crowd believes the election is headed.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter sentiment, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on, potentially incorporating more nuanced information and anticipating shifts in support. This can lead to divergences, especially as the election nears and more information becomes available. The collective wisdom of traders in this market can sometimes be a more accurate predictor of the final result than polls alone, offering a real-time assessment of the race.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structures, which can influence pricing. Additionally, differing levels of liquidity and varying interpretations of available information can contribute to discrepancies. For instance, one platform might attract more sophisticated traders with access to unique data, while the other might have a broader, more general audience. These factors can create temporary price differences, even though both are tracking the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the TX-15 House election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official election results certified by the relevant election authorities. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome. This process ensures a transparent and reliable resolution to this market, reflecting the actual results of the election.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, and unexpected developments in the candidates' campaigns could all shift predictions. Polling data releases, particularly those showing substantial changes in voter preferences, will also likely cause movement. Furthermore, any unforeseen events affecting the political landscape, such as debates or controversies, could influence trader sentiment and alter the odds. A change in the overall national political climate could also have a ripple effect on this market.